Job cuts

The internal and global situation in the wake of the raging coronavirus pandemic indicates difficult days ahead for Pakistanis. The Ministry of Planning has estimated that within the country 12.3 million to 18.5 million jobs might be lost and the economy could sustain Rs2 trillion to Rs2.5 trillion losses due to moderate to severe shocks from the virus outbreak. The grim forecast has come when the country seems to have crossed the limited level and is at the moderate phase in terms of curbs on movement. Add to this the global situation. So far the pandemic has claimed more than 51,000 lives worldwide and the number of confirmed cases has topped one million.

Now the worst-hit country is the US, the largest economy in the world. Italy, China, Spain and other European countries are among countries to take the biggest hit. These countries are Pakistan’s important trading partners, so losses in terms of exports too would be substantial. Hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis work in Gulf countries whose remittances are crucial to the functioning of the economy. Much of the region has been in lockdown for varying periods of time. The above figures are, however, tentative, as the full impact of the pandemic will only be felt when it ends. This is the future scenario in a country whose economy has already been in turbulent waters. All this points to a frightening scenario in the near future, especially in terms of unemployment.

The UN has predicted a 1% growth of the global economy, a sharp reversal from the pre-pandemic forecast of 2.5%. Countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Egypt are likely to be badly affected as a result of the spread of coronavirus in the Gulf. As of now Gulf countries have 3,2,00 confirmed cases of Covid-19. The devastating effects of the pandemic should give humanity a jolt to mend its ways. Harmful habits precede natural calamities. Or is it going to be the same thing over and over again? 

Published in The Express Tribune, April 4^th, 2020.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.