Impending unbearable heatwaves

A perusal of local newspaper archives published during the summer months over the past few years reveals how heatwaves are taking an incremental toll on poor people, especially across already hot parts of our country. These intense summer heatwaves are part of a bigger and growingly serious phenomenon.

A large study, conducted by the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology in 2017, concluded that by the end of the current century, climate change could lead to summer heatwaves with levels of heat and humidity that exceed what humans can naturally endure. Their projections show the Persian Gulf will suffer from the worst heatwaves on the planet, followed by South Asian regions such as northern India, Bangladesh, and southern Pakistan. A separate study by researchers at the University of California at Irvine and elsewhere has also reached similar dire conclusions about the threat of impending heatwaves.

According to a research study published by the reputable scientific journal, Atmospheric Research, Pakistan was hit by 126 heatwaves of varying durations between 1997 and 2015, which averages to around seven heatwaves per year. The frequency and intensity of these heatwaves is predicted to keep worsening.

Besides pinpointing the geographic location where the most intense heatwaves will be concentrated, researchers have also highlighted that these deadly heatwaves would impact people who are least prepared to contend with this challenge. Most of the heat wave hotspots across South Asia are home to millions of people who depend on subsistence farming and daily waged labour, which requires long hours of hard labour in the open, unprotected from the sun.

The deadliest effects of rising temperatures for humans come from a combination of high temperature and high humidity, an index which is measured by a reading known as the wet-bulb temperature. This reflects the ability of moisture to evaporate, which is the mechanism required for the human body to maintain its internal temperature through the evaporation of sweat. Scientists are warning that in the Persian Gulf region, the 35-degree Celsius wet-bulb limit was almost reached in 2015. The summer of 2015 had also produced one of the deadliest heatwaves in the history of South Asia, killing an estimated 3,500 people in Pakistan and India.

Higher temperatures during the summer months are not only deadly for people but they will also increase the irrigation needs for various summer crops, particularly because of the rapid decline in soil moisture and higher levels of surface water evaporation. This in turn has the potential to further exacerbate our water insecurity problem.

Under business-as-usual scenarios, without significant reductions in global carbon emissions, these aforementioned scientific studies show that the deadly consequences of heatwaves could become increasingly evident within as little time as a few decades.

Scientific research provides a grim warning about what could happen. These findings need not breed fatalism. But they should not be dismissed either for unnecessarily portraying dooms-day scenarios. While the threat is real, it does not mean it is imminent.

Although Pakistan has not played a significant role in causing climate change, it looks like we will still end up dealing with some of the hottest spots on the planet. Being able to avert the threat of climate-induced heatwaves is also beyond the control of countries like our own, yet there are a range of mitigation measures which we can still take to prevent the human and economic toll of this emerging threat.

Planting more trees, implementing water conservation and management schemes, and creating more productive cottage industries are some possible measures which have been acknowledged, but still need more attention. Coming up with other mitigation strategies, to accommodate climate refugees in more habitable locations, without adding to the burden of already overflowing larger cities, would be another prudent measure which our future policymakers must begin paying increasing heed to.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 6^th, 2020.

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