Money on the sun

Thomas Edison once told his friend that he’d put his money on the sun. Edison’s foresight seems to have resonated with the Chinese. China – which was, only four decades ago, a poor, stagnant and isolated global economy – is now being hailed not just as an economic powerhouse but also one that leads the clean energy revolution. Lessening its dependence on coal, China is now looking towards a greener future. How promising is it that a primary contributor of fossil-fuel consumption and carbon pollution has now, according to BP estimates, burned the least amount of coal in the past six years.

Make no mistake: while China is home to the largest capacity of hydro, wind and solar power, it still remains the world’s biggest consumer of coal. So, in essence, the dream to phase out coal is anything but a reality. What is noteworthy, however, is that China was able to reduce emissions by 45 million tonnes of coal demand, by transitioning to less carbon-intensive natural gas. Without this coal-to-gas switch, increase in emissions would be far greater. What this tells us is that decarbonising the global power sector and reducing the carbon intensity of global energy use requires a variety of different technologies. Investing in renewables is only one fraction of the work that needs to be done but, needless to say, it is vital.

China, while it leads the race, is not the only nation that has lately invested in renewable energy.  Renewable energy is increasingly becoming an attractive option the world over, and for good reason too. Scientists have cautioned that the world is on an unsustainable path with the unprecedented growth in energy demand and simultaneous carbon emissions – about a sixth of all carbon emissions occurred in the past decade, bringing the world closer to 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming.  According to the International Energy Agency, coal is the single largest source of global temperature increase. As long as carbon emissions continue to rise, it becomes more costly for the eventual adjustment to net-zero carbon emissions. This underscores the urgency for the world to adapt fast and switch to renewables.

So, at a time when countries world over are reducing coal use, why is it that Pakistan is increasing its reliance on coal energy? Through the financing and construction of coal power plants as part of CPEC, Pakistan has expanded its coal-fired generation capacity. From Port Qasim to Sahiwal, to Thar, Hub and Gwadar – nearly 75% of CPEC power plants are coal-fired. According to NEPRA, the share of coal power in Pakistan’s generation capacity would increase to nearly 20% in 2025. We must not be quick to label Pakistan as irresponsible, however. The reality is that most developing countries that face chronic energy shortages turn towards coal-fired projects as an easy fallback option and a quick fix. In desire to quickly eradicate the electricity crisis that was costing the country’s GDP 2% per annum, Pakistan selected coal as the country’s best option for power generation. But this comes with a cost. Heavily skewing power projects towards coal would substantially increase Pakistan’s greenhouse gas emissions. This is not in keeping with the pledge it made in December 2015 in Paris at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Coal activities may also exacerbate Pakistan’s water woes, as mining and burning coal to generate power are water-intensive activities. Furthermore, with increased emissions of air pollutants and the handling of coal ash, the coal projects pose great risk for the health of Pakistan’s citizens.

There is a serious discrepancy between Pakistan’s increasing reliance on coal and the rest of the world’s recent undertakings to move towards greener and cleaner energy. Bloomberg has forecasted that in 2050, solar and wind sources would power half the globe. This is likely because already, in two-thirds of the world, solar and wind sources have become the cheapest forms of power. Come 2050, where would Pakistan stand? Tough questions ought to be asked if we are interested in securing a sustainable future for Pakistan.

It is time, we too, put our money on the sun.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 5^th, 2020.

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