Dire challenges

As per a research, by 2040, cost of climate change to agriculture in Pakistan is likely to rise to 7% of productivity

As Pakistan’s ruling elite kept playing politics over petty non-issues, the country traversed fast in a matter of few years on the Global Climate Risk Index from a position of 10th to 5th among the ten most vulnerable countries in the world. In short, as of today Pakistan’s very survival is under serious threat as the country finds it increasingly difficult to cope with the dire challenges of climate change for want of technical and financial resources.

As it happens, the two-week-long 25th UN Climate Change Conference was in session in Madrid when the latest Climate Index report was released. Around 200 countries including Pakistan participated in the conference with the sole objective of finding solutions and to help the most vulnerable developing countries with technical advice and adequate funds.

In the 10 years since 1998, almost 10,000 people are said to have lost their lives in Pakistan due to heavy floods and intense heatwaves, costing the country a loss of approximately $4 billion. Indeed, the devastating impact on the ecosystem is said to have seriously threatened our public health, agriculture and economy as a whole.

Pakistan has been rendered more prone to extreme weather events like heavy rains because of its geographical location. The country expects financial help from the so-called Green Climate Fund (GCF) to meet the targets fixed in the Paris Climate Accord. But this expectation has so far remained only a forlorn hope making it crystal clear that unless we start helping ourselves, no one from the outside, including multilateral aid agencies, is going to rescue us from the almost “point of no return”.

Foreign funds are expected every year to enable the country to adapt to climate change. And the Senate had, in 2017, passed a policy calling upon the creation of Pakistan Climate Change Authority to manage said funds. There is, however, no concrete indication that the GCF will provide the required funding. Pakistan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs), submitted to the 2015 Paris Agreement, aims to cut up to 20% of its 2030 projected Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, using international grants for adaptation and mitigation.

According to Pakistan National Policy on Climate Change, Pakistan’s energy sector is the single largest source of GHG emissions, accounting for nearly 51% of these emissions, followed by the agriculture sector (39%) and industrial processes (6%). Therefore, the most important target for mitigation efforts need to be focused on reduction of GHG emissions in energy and agriculture sectors. As such, greater attention must be paid to energy efficiency requirements in building codes, long-term transport planning, transmission losses and wastes. Similarly, in the agri sector irrigation water management and cropping pattern need to be improved to increase the per acre yield and cultivate more than two crops from the same field.

According to one research, by 2040, the cost of climate change to agriculture in Pakistan is likely to rise to 7% of productivity, but good climate adaptation practices could increase the net productivity by more than 40%.

Important climate change threats to Pakistan are: considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with erratic monsoon rains causing frequent and intense floods and droughts; increased siltation of major dams caused by more frequent and intense floods; rising temperatures resulting in enhanced heat and water-stressed conditions, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, leading to reduced agricultural productivity; further decrease in the already scanty forest cover, from too rapid change in climatic conditions to allow natural migration of adversely affected plant species; increased intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta, adversely affecting coastal agriculture, mangroves and the breeding grounds of fish; threat to coastal areas due to projected sea level rise and increased cyclonic activity due to higher sea surface temperatures; increased stress between upper riparian and lower riparian regions in relation to sharing of water resources; and increased health risks and climate change-induced migration.

The above threats lead to major survival concerns for Pakistan, particularly in relation to the country’s water security, food security and energy security.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 7^th, 2019.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.