Imran in Iran and Saudi Arabia

Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi is crediting Pakistan for averting war in the Middle East, which would be a positive development if either of the two main parties to the conflict had offered any hint that this was the case. Qureshi said Saudi and Iranian leaders indicated a willingness to talk after meeting with Prime Minister Imran Khan this week, but given the massive implications of his statement, Qureshi offered no additional details to back up his claim.

PM Imran’s visits can, however, still be seen as an effort at reconciliation that he could not have undertaken without a green light from the leaders of both countries. Incidentally, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdel-Mahdi has also been reportedly relaying messages about de-escalation between Saudi and Iranian leaders. The biggest sign that there has been a rapprochement actually came last week after the attack on an Iranian oil tanker, when Tehran refrained from instantly casting blame on the Saudis, as had been a common past practice. How long that restraint holds may well reflect on the level of commitment to peace on the Iranian side. The Saudis, meanwhile, have likely been forced to re-evaluate their own position after US President Donald Trump upturned the situation in Syria. By leaving America’s Kurdish allies high and dry, Trump may have shown the Saudis that he is not a reliable partner, even if he did send additional troops to the kingdom. Also worrying the Saudis would be his past reluctance to escalate any confrontation with Iran.

In a recent interview, Imran may have strengthened this theory by telling CNN that Trump had asked him to “try and be a go-between with Iran and the United States.” In the same interview, Imran said a Saudi-Iran war would be “a disaster”. He also said that a priority in his discussions with the leaders of both countries was to create a ceasefire in Yemen, which is already a disaster because of the war between a Saudi-led coalition and Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. But let us be optimistic. Too many times, peacemaking efforts in the Middle East have been more talk and less action. Maybe Riyadh and Tehran’s silence is a good thing.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 18^th, 2019.

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