Clouds of uncertainty

The ongoing unrest in the IoK can delay Washington’s push for a deal to end its longest war in Afghanistan

The attack on Kashmir’s limited autonomy by India was carried out ruthlessly, somewhat haphazardly and without considering the implications. While Modi and his fellow Hindu nationalists would like the world to turn a deaf ear to the realities in the occupied territory, his government’s actions have exposed India’s longstanding violations in the region. This latest move by the Indian prime minister has not only brewed distrust between New Delhi and Islamabad, but it also distracts the latter from its efforts to broker a peace deal between the US and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Dictated by domestic politics, Modi’s action in Kashmir will surely have regional repercussions. As tensions between India and Pakistan continue to build up, Islamabad may soon be forced to focus its attention and troops on its eastern border with India, not its northwestern border with Afghanistan. While peace in Afghanistan and Kashmir have no direct relation, Modi’s unilateral decision to downgrade Kashmir’s status to a colony coincides with Pakistan’s involvement in the Afghan peace process, which is in its final stages. The ongoing unrest in the occupied territory can delay Washington’s push for a deal to end its longest war in Afghanistan. And if the Pakistan-India tensions become a lasting distraction or spill over to a military conflict, peace in Afghanistan will become unachievable for President Trump, who is relying heavily on Islamabad to help with the endgame. For Modi and his cohort, nothing matters more than their political survival in India, which wouldn’t have been possible without such an extreme move against the already oppressed Muslim minority in Kashmir.

By changing the contours of the India-Pakistan engagement on Kashmir, India may have cast uncertainty over the ongoing peace process in Afghanistan, which is unachievable without Pakistan’s support. And without mediation at this point, this recent escalation with India could delay, if not derail, the end of nearly two decades of American military entanglement in Afghanistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 15^th, 2019.

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