Bridging back: US-Pakistan relationship

As PM Imran had a successful meeting with US President Trump at the White House

Prime Minister Imran Khan made a successful visit to the US. Its success was important because Pakistan had been in an on-and-off relationship with the US for a very long time, and the strategic partnership between the two countries was at stake. The US policy tilt and preference of India over Pakistan was the pivot of the grand policy shift that the US executed in the last decade or so. Was that to counter and balance against China or was it to checkmate Pakistan and spur it to do more? Whatever the grand strategic design of the US in the region, one thing is very clear: America’s two-steps-backward-and-one-step-forward relationship with Pakistan had nothing to do with an impulsive and reckless president in the office. This relationship had actually followed a definite pattern.

On 6^th February 2018, US Deputy Secretary of State John J Sullivan had told the US Committee on Foreign Relations, “The US wants to ensure that Pakistan has a bridge back to enhanced cooperation if it takes decisive action at US requests.” No doubt, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s successful visit to the US indicates that Pakistan definitely has “bridged back to enhanced cooperation with the US”, but what are those decisive actions that Pakistan has taken which has made this bridge back successful?

“A new US approach to Pakistan: enforcing aid conditions without cutting ties,” a report co-authored by Lisa Curtis, Deputy Assistant to US President Donald Trump, Senior Director for South and Central Asia at the National Security Council, and Pakistan’s former ambassador Hussain Haqqani, and published in February 2017, had laid down the ground rules for the US policy change against Pakistan. It would not be wrong to assume that the conditions set out in that report largely became the tweeting language that President Trump used.

Broadly speaking, the report had asked President Trump to review his policy towards Pakistan. The nature of President Obama was obviously quite different from that of President Trump. While President Obama had asked Bruce Riddell, former CIA official and Obama adviser, to conduct an Afghan policy review, for which he took six long months, President Trump did not do anything of this sort. As President Trump announced the new American policy towards Afghanistan in August 2017, he gave a hint of what was to come in the near future. He clearly said, “Our politicians seem more interested in defending the borders of foreign countries than their own.” He also clarified, “We will no longer use American military might to construct democracies in faraway lands, or try to build countries in our own image.” The President was definitely taking a jibe at his predecessors, President G W Bush and President Obama, who were the architects of the longest war that America fought and who tried everything from counterterrorism to counterinsurgency, and extreme troop surge, to try and win an unwinnable war. Had these two presidents lent an ear to General Collin Powell, the US Secretary of State under President G W Bush, and his famous “Powell Doctrine”, the US may not have suffered as much as it did in Afghanistan. His doctrine premised on the central idea that the US should only resort to military action if it serves its national interests and if it is sure of victory. He recommended that a group of questions must be answered before any military action is taken by the US. Reading these questions, even a young lieutenant of any army could see that the US was fighting a war in Afghanistan for all the wrong reasons. The questions were — Is a vital national security interest threatened? Is the objective clear and attainable? Have the costs and risks been fully analysed? Have all other non-violent means been fully exhausted? Is there a plausible exit strategy? Have the consequences of military action been fully considered? Is the military action supported by the people? And lastly, does the military action have a broad based international support? Nineteen years, numerous causalities and over $1 trillion later, one can easily say that the Americans misread the Afghan war and failed to implement the Collin Powell Doctrine.

We all witnessed the discontinuity of the Pakistan-US partnership and the growth of the new found Indo-US strategic partnership. Although Pakistan was strategically sidelined, a major question remained very relevant in the context of the Pakistan-US relations — Was the US really benefiting from the discontinuity of this relationship? I am sure this question must have repeatedly been brought up in the US policymaking circles.

The foundation of the bridge back of this relationship clearly lies in one important factor and that is the resemblance and commonalities that can be found in the current leadership of the two countries. President Trump, like Prime Minister Imran Khan, is an outsider and both of them hardly have any resemblance to their predecessors regarding how they conduct their politics. The much-vaunted personal chemistry found between the two leaders argues well for the future of the Pakistan-US relations.

There are two other important aspects of the visit that cannot be ignored. Firstly, Prime Minister Modi of India has so far not disowned the comments made by President Trump on Kashmir. This actually puts India in a very awkward position. The Indian media can, with all guns blazing, call President Trump a liar, but can the Indian premier disassociate himself from the statement that President Trump made, and yet expect no throwback in diplomatic relations between the two countries? Secondly, the reception that General Qamar Javed Bajwa got at Pentagon was unprecedented. That kind of reception could not be extended to an outgoing COAS. So is there a hint on the future prospects of retirement of the COAS?

Lastly, Afghanistan has suffered a lot and so has our relationship with this brotherly country. It is imperative that Imran Khan’s government ensures that this very important relationship now heals. Repairing this damaged relationship can go a long way in winning over the hearts and minds of the Afghan people who have suffered a lot in the unending violence that has been continuing for a very long time. The Afghan horror must end and Pakistan, more than taking the credit for this ending, must extend all possible facilitation that it can offer. We must rebuild our relationship with Afghanistan, and I hope that remains a top priority for the PTI government.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 28^th, 2019.

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