US President Donald Trump. PHOTO: AFP/FILE
US President Donald Trump
The world escaped a narrow military showdown between the United States and Iran when an American unmanned drone was shot down by Iran over the Strait of Hormuz on June 20. Trump ordered attacks on three targets in Iran and communicated through Oman that an American attack was imminent. In his message transmitted to Tehran, President Trump had offered diplomatic negotiations to end the US-Iran standoff. The US president while justifying his decision to abort American strikes against Iran made it clear that such a response would have been disproportionate as it could have killed 150 people. He asserted that he was not in a hurry to retaliate against Iran’s downing of a US drone as economic sanctions to force Iran roll back its nuclear and missile programme are having their own impact.
What will be the outcome of US-Iran standoff over America’s withdrawal from its nuclear deal with Iran and how far Iran will withstand not only American but international sanctions? Will the Iranian regime accept Trump’s offer for seeking a diplomatic solution of its standoff with the United States? What will be the scenario if the US-Iran impasse transforms into the outbreak of an armed conflict?
According to President Trump, there was a consensus within the troika of US defence and foreign policy apparatus which included Secretary of State Mike Pompano, National Security Adviser John Bolton and CIA Director Gina Hasped who favoured retaliatory strike against Iran but sanity prevailed when the American president who is the final authority to launch American strikes decided not to go for that option. The supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei has ruled out negotiations to ease tension with the United States unless sanctions are lifted. Iran also threatened to resume its nuclear programme while leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if threats and coercion from the United States do not end. Iranian generals, including Al Quds Force Commander General Qasem Sulemani and Chiefs of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Baqeri, have threatened to cause colossal damage to the US and its allies in the Persian Gulf. They have also made it clear that the United States lacks the capacity to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and the Gulf will become an “immediate shooting gallery” and that Iranian missiles are capable of hitting “carriers in the sea.”
One can figure out three possibilities in case diplomacy is given a serious thought to avert Iran-US war. First, the need and role of mediator or a third party in order to reinforce diplomatic efforts to prevent a final showdown between Iran and the United States is imperative. President Trump communicated his warning and also wishes for talks with Iran by using the Oman channel. Bu diplomatic channels in case of Iran and the United States must possess credibility and trust from both sides. It is yet to be seen to what extent Oman can be a reliable and credible diplomatic option because it is an important member of anti-Iran Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Since 1979, when the Iranian Islamic revolution resulted in rupture of Iran-US ties following the hostage crisis, it is Switzerland which has acted as a diplomatic channel between Washington and Tehran. If Switzerland agrees to play a role for the easing of Iran-US tension and is acceptable to both sides, one can expect a major breakthrough in preventing a military showdown in the Persian Gulf. Earlier, Algeria had mediated between the United States and Iran for the release of 54 US hostages holed up in the American Embassy in Tehran during the hostage crisis in 1979.
Second, as of now diplomatic overtures have turned out to be little successful in mending fences between Iran and the United States, adversaries since 1979. Both governments have adopted a hard stance.
Even then, if diplomacy is properly channelled with right intentions one can still expect gradual normalisation of US-Iran relations. After all, both Iran and the United States are aware of the fact that it will be a zero-sum game if the two sides go to war. Stakes are quite high if issues between Iran and the United States remain unresolved. Third, the impediments to using diplomacy are quite clear. Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt are against giving any space to Iran. Particularly, Israel has been urging the United States to use force against Iran because of its age-old fear of what it calls another Muslim country with an ‘Islamic bomb.’ One can understand why Israel is against Iran, but Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia and others considering Iran as an enemy state is not only illogical but also tantamount to strengthening the position of Israel in the region and legitimising its illegal occupation of Palestinian territories, including Al Quds and the Golan Heights. Insecurity and paranoia among some Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia against Iran’s influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and its ability to challenge conservative monarchial regimes of the Persian Gulf is a major cause of their nexus with the United States and Israel against Iran.
One can gauge far-reaching implications if diplomacy is not given a chance to avert the threat of war in the Persian Gulf. Iran will likely face considerable physical and material damages in case it faces an American aggression, but one also needs to keep in mind the level of destruction which Tehran will be able to inflict on American forces deployed in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz which supplies around 40% of Gulf’s oil to the rest of the world. There is still time for the stakeholders of peace in the Persian Gulf and West Asia to take immediate steps for de-escalation of the tension and to unleash the process of normalisation in US-Iran ties on the one hand and of Saudi-Iran relations on the other. Unless the Trump administration reverses its hostile posture, attitude and policy vis-à-vis Iran and continues conspiracies with the connivance of Israel, there is no possibility of peace in the Persian Gulf. Iran has shot down only an American unmanned drone, but in July 1988, the US had shot down an Iranian passenger plane in which hundreds of passengers died. The US expressed no regrets for such a human tragedy but was ready to retaliate against Iran when its unmanned drone was shot down by Iran. That is how the United States has behaved while committing unpardonable acts while disregarding international law and bypassing the United Nations in order to proceed with its policy of ‘regime change.”
Published in The Express Tribune, June 28th, 2019.
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