The writer is a political, economy and security analyst and a governance and public policy practitioner. He can be contacted at razapkhan@yahoo.com
The non-state actor challenge to the US-dominated unipolar world mainly came from Muslim militant organisations particularly al Qaeda, which attacked American mainland on September 9, 2001, followed by the launch of the global War on Terror, which has not come to an official end as the US after 18 long years has not been able to defeat the Afghan Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. It is important to note here that Afghan Taliban were fundamentally non-state actors but were ultimately able to dominate the entire Afghanistan by the force of arms in September 1996 and transform into a state actor by establishing an iron-fisted rule in Afghanistan. More importantly, it was the transformed non-state Taliban militia that had provided sanctuaries, rallying ground and launching pad to non-state global militant organisations like al Qaeda and several others Central and South Asian militias and terrorist outfits. Activities of these militant and terrorist outfits precipitated Global War on Terror. This shows that ruthless non-state actors, even if transformed into state actors, are quite dangerous for regional and global stability. For instance, the IS — which emerged from nowhere in 2014 to dominate large swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria, named as Islamic Caliphate, in other words a state — profoundly disturbed international peace. By the way, American revolutionaries in the late 18th Century led by George Washington were acting as an armed militia. However, the difference between today’s non-state actors and those of the past is that the latter more often than not were motivated by an articulate intellectual movement.
Coming to the threat from the non-state militant organisations to the US power and dominance in the post-Cold War era, it has been both ideological (albeit inarticulate) and financial. Although non-state actors could not pose as huge financial threat due to the limited resources vis-a-vis state actors as once the Soviet Union had posed. Therefore, America has largely been successful in overcoming the threat from non-state actors.
On the other hand the international political scenario has been slowly and gradually changing towards a kind of another Cold War, fundamentally because China’s rise as a new global power centre. Moreover, China has also been adapting soft economic expansionist policies as is evident from the Belt & Road Initiative. Through this initiative, China wants to economically integrate the Afro Eurasian landmass with Beijing at the centre to get maximum advantage out of it. The growing trade standoff between China and America and the crossing of swords between them in the South China Sea and polemics over Taiwan and Hong Kong are symptomatic of the new Cold War.
In this global scenario, India, which wants to be another power centre, is siding with America. Because China, is not only the strategic rival of the US but also a potential economic antagonist. Russia is looking at this situation very carefully and doesn’t want to jump to any side. Like others, it would like to get maximum advantage out of this rivalry between the US and China. Small countries like Pakistan, Iran, Egypt and Turkey are allying with the one side or the other keeping in view their economic and security needs.
The global power scene has transformed with China emerging as an established power centre and this is a very interesting situation but has its opportunities and pitfalls. Our policymakers must act very carefully to take advantage as well as to secure the country from the ill-effects of this situation.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 23rd, 2019.
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