Raiwind reshuffle

Reshuffle is part of larger strategy which seems to have been stitched together

The PML-N has yawned, stretched, rubbed its eyes and woken up with a groan. Good morning Pakistan, says Raiwind. Did you sleep well? The party sure did.

But it could not dream its troubles away. They kept on coming like White Walkers crawling up Winterfell’s walls. Something needed to be done. That something was done over the weekend. But the night is dark and full of terrors.

The party is now officially struggling to emerge from such terrors. Titles, positions and responsibilities have been reshuffled with an aim to infuse some energy into the sleep-inducing performance of the party. The changes that occurred on Thursday and Friday however, have a back story. Here’s how the story has unfolded:

By the time 2019 rolled in, many in the PML-N were still in denial. One group within the party clung to the belief that the “vote ko izzat do” narrative would come roaring out of Raiwind like a furious lion and devour the incompetent government in a few meaty mouthfuls. The other group visualised the day when the Establishment would realise it had bet on the wrong horse and would return to its original choice.

It took a while for the harsh reality to sink in: there was to be no roar and there was to be no deal. Mian Nawaz Sharif, Maryam Nawaz, Shehbaz Sharif, Hamza Shehbaz and many other family members found themselves stuck between the steel jaws of an unrelenting system.

There was no relief. There was no reprieve. There was no release. The party’s collective denial therefore began to gradually wear off like a receding fever.

The situation looked thus: Nawaz Sharif would either spend time in jail or at best go into exile. The exile option of course is nowhere to be seen as of now. Shehbaz Sharif would be burdened by the crushing weight of NAB cases and could go back to jail at a moment’s notice.

Maryam Nawaz’s freedom would continue hanging by a thread that could snap any time. Hamza Shehbaz would be in and out of NAB appearances and could find himself detained without notice. The line of cases against all would remain long and the legal net wide enough to accommodate the whole family.

This left the party in a bind. This wasn’t a piddly little Tonga party that could afford to sit pretty and just look relevant. No ladies and gentlemen, this was a party with big numbers and big names. In the Centre and in Punjab, PML-N remained only a few members away from forming the government. It was no pushover.

Except that it was. Or had become one. With the family leadership struggling to decide what to do and what to say, the second line of leadership had little choice other than warming their parliamentary seats and waiting for the skies to rain some clarity on them. There was some mumbling here and some grumbling there, but as a whole, the party punched in ‘Whenever-O’clock’ on its alarm clock and went to sleep.

The alarm went off a few weeks back. The leadership realised some order was in order to halt the slide. Thoughts were thought; options were discussed; decisions were taken.

These thoughts, options and decisions culminated in the party reshuffle over the weekend. This reshuffle however is part of a larger strategy – if one may call it that – which seems to have been stitched together. This is what it looks like:

a) the PMLN will snap out of its defiance mode for now and there will be no attacks on the Establishment; b) Instead the party will focus all its energies on going after the PTI which has conveniently offered itself as a soft and flabby target; c) the PML-N will attempt the difficult task of criticising the PTI without criticising the Establishment; d) Leaders from outside the Sharif family will form the front line of the attack. They will also shoulder operational responsibilities while the family takes a relatively back seat; e) reshuffle will induce energy and initiative within the party rank and file and signal a revival of political activity inside and outside parliament; f) The party will wait for the PTI to self-destruct; g) The PML-N will also wait for the ‘storm’ to subside and perhaps people to retire. Then and only then will it try and weave its way back into power.

Easier said than done though. The PML-N may have woken up to its problems but it continues to suffer from some key deficiencies: 1) It is still not clear whether the PML-N’s long-term objective is to fight the fight or wage peace.

This means clarity is short term only; 2) It is also not clear whether the ‘Nawaz camp’ and ‘Shehbaz camp’ will merge into one or remain divided in approach; 3) Some weak decisions point towards sloppy thinking within the party. Nominating Rana Tanveer as Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) is one such example.

First, other Opposition parties were not consulted like they should have been and Rana Tanveer was presented as a fait accompli. There is justifiable criticism from other parties on this clumsy way of managing the issue, and there are chances that the government may not agree to the nomination. This may lead to the Opposition, or at least the PMLN-N, losing the slot of Chairman PAC.

Second, Rana Tanveer is a weak candidate. He may be senior but he does not command the respect of his colleagues like many others do. There are also skeletons in his cupboard that may start to rattle and end up embarrassing his party. 3) Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has stolen the thunder from the PML-N and the party seems to have no plan to steal it back from him. As far as optics go, the PML-N seems to be the junior partner to the PPP. That’s saying quite a lot.

But the buffed up second line of party leadership now has a genuine shot at carving out a new non-dynastic face for the party.

The party’s biggest strength today – in these trying times – is its rock solid non-Sharif batting line-up: Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Khawaja Asif, Ahsan Iqbal, Khurram Dastgir, Miftah Ismail, Marriyum Aurangzeb, Musaddiq Malik, Rana Sanaullah, Mohammad Zubair and some others.

If these people can have clarity and space to drive the party back into the game, the PML-N would be in a decent position to weather the storm. But if the strategy falls victim to duality, vagueness and defensiveness then Noon should prepare for high noon.

The Raiwind reshuffle should be a process, not just an event. If the Sharif brothers can trigger this process and provide it clarity, they would have given the party the leadership it needs-and deserves.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 5^th, 2019.

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