Pakistan-India relations

The hope for normalised relations from doves on both sides has led to unrealistic expectations.

The consensus analysis of the recently concluded talks between the Pakistani and Indian foreign secretaries in Islamabad is that they did not lead to any major breakthroughs. That is true enough, given that the two countries are no closer to breaking the long-standing impasse on the Kashmir and terrorism issues. But that Pakistan and India were able to hold amiable talks and promise to follow them up with ministerial-level discussions in New Delhi next month is in itself a sign of progress. The hope for normalised relations and an end to decades of mistrust from doves on both sides has led to unrealistic expectations. As long as the spectre of the 26/11 Mumbai attacks of 2008 hangs over the two countries, small confidence-building measures are the best that can be hoped for. Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao was correct in calling the dialogue a “part of a process” and small steps can help move the process along. For instance, there can be a relaxation in the visa process and regular exchanges of prisoners, especially fishermen whose only crime is to accidentally cross the maritime border.

Ultimately, though, Pakistan has to make a tough decision: Does it consider India a potential friend or a permanent foe? And that decision will be made not by foreign secretaries or even at the presidential level. It is the military that must change its thinking. So long as the army is ambivalent about its support for militant groups, like the Lashkar-e-Taiba, which stage attacks in India, peace will remain an illusory dream. Since the military hijacked the home-grown Kashmir uprising of 1989, aiding militants has done nothing to further our claims to the disputed area and led to international condemnation. But it is in our national interest to neutralise the Indian front as quickly as possible, so that Islamabad is able to cope with the trust deficits that are emerging in Pakistan-US and Pakistan-Afghanistan relations with more equanimity.

It is now time for the military to understand that its policy has been a failure, both on moral and tactical grounds. Until it comes to that realisation, peace talks will yield only marginal benefits and not a complete normalisation of relations.



Published in The Express Tribune, June 26^th, 2011.