By-polls: Opposition alliance may dent PTI’s position

11 seats in National Assembly and 24 in provincial assemblies up for grabs

LAHORE: The seat adjustment formula agreed upon by the main political rivals of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) can potentially dent its position in the Sunday’s by-election, even if the impact of gas price hike and possible inflation on voters was discounted.

In all, by-election are scheduled in 35 constituencies – 11 for the National Assembly and 24 for provincial assemblies.

Two Punjab Assembly seats have already gone to the PTI after their candidates won unopposed. Of the remaining 24 seats, 10 pertains to Punjab Assembly, 10 to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly and two each to Sindh and Balochistan assemblies.

On two provincial assembly seats and one National Assembly seat, elections are to be held on October 21.

Of the 11 NA seats, election were previously held on nine seats of which eight were vacated by the PTI and one of its allies, PML-Q. Of these eight seats, four were vacated by Prime Minister Imran Khan (NA-35 Bannu, NA-53 Islamabad, NA-131 Lahore and NA-243 Karachi) while two NA seats were vacated by Speaker Punjab Assembly Chaudhry Pervez Elahi (NA-65 Chakwal and NA-69 Gujrat) as he had retained his provincial assembly seat.

PTI’s Maj (retd) Tahir Sadiq had vacated NA-56 Attock while retraining NA-55. Ghulam Sarwar Khan, currently the federal petroleum minister, had vacated NA-63 and retained NA-59 Rawalpindi.

Only one of the nine seats was vacated by a PML-N leader, Hamza Shehbaz, who retained his provincial assembly seat.

After Hanif Abbassi’s disqualification just days before the general election, the ECP had postponed election in NA-60 Rawalpindi. The election on NA-103 Faisalabad had also been postponed after the death of a candidate.

This time around, at least three National Assembly seats might slip through the PTI’s hands because the total number of votes obtained by opposition parties exceeds the votes obtained by the PTI candidates.

In NA-131, one of the five seats won by Prime Minister Imran Khan, the number of votes obtained were 84,313 while Khawaja Saad Raffique of PML-N had obtained 83,633 votes to lose by a few hundred votes.

If the votes bagged by the PPPP are combined with those of the PML-N, it gives their joint candidate a comfortable margin of nearly 6,000 votes.



Similarly, NA-35, another seat vacated by PTI Chairman Imran, may also be won by either of the opposition parties. In the 25 July election, the PTI had secured 113,822 votes on the said seat, the PPPP 9,173 and the MMA 10,682. If the JUI-F candidate, an integral part of the MMA, is support by the PPPP, he will have a substantial advantage of votes over the PTI candidate.

The fate of NA-56 is also uncertain. It was vacated by Tahir Sadiq of the PTI. During the general election, the PTI had obtained 163,326 votes for the mentioned seat, the PML-N 99,404 and the PPPP 38,779 votes. If the votes obtained by the PML-N and the PPPP are combined, the lead is reduced to just 21,000 votes.

The PPPP and PML-N alliance might also spell trouble on several provincial assembly seats.

In PP-27 Jehlum, PTI’s Fawad Chaudhry had won by obtaining 67,444 votes while the PML-N candidate had secured 65,501 votes and the PPPP’s 2,586.

The combined strength of the opposition votes is more than those of the winning PTI candidate.

In PP-292 too, the PTI had obtained 32,316, the PML-N 32,104 and the PPPP 3,552.

The same was the case in Rahimyar Khan where the PPPP candidate is being supported by the PML-N and their combined vote strength is far higher that the PTI candidate who had returned on July 25.

The margin of votes obtained by the PTI candidate and those obtained by the PML-N and the PPPP combined would also narrow down in PP-3 Attock and PP-222 Multan.