Mr Khan’s new chessboard

Pakistan’s new premier stands on a giant uncanny chessboard. It is neither of his choice nor of his making. It is 3D like the ones you see in Star Trek series and animated like Harry Potter’s wizard’s chess. Mr Khan stands where the king should stand, surrounded by an army of rooks, knights, bishops and pawns. Did he think any of this was going to be easy? Did he think lady luck would smile at him and the entire world would fall in place? If yes then he couldn’t be more mistaken. But perhaps he saw this coming.

This 3D chess reference owes itself to a recent speech of President Trump where he claimed that China said that the country had respect for his “very, very large brain”. In reality, however, the expert in question had said that Trump and China were playing 3D chess on trade. But if that was 3D chess, this one faced by our prime minister is Wizard’s 3D chess. Far more daunting if enthralling.

The first challenge here is of survival. In other words, of economy. The previous player left behind quite few landmines on this turf for the new player. An exceptionally generous relief budget, depleting foreign reserves, taxing trade deficit, yawning fiscal deficit. And just when the new player thought that he would get enough time to rearrange his piece, he was informed that the battle had already begun.

It began with media reports that the IMF was working on a plan to offer Pakistan a bailout package worth $12 billion if it came looking for help. Immediately US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appeared on television warning the Fund against a bailout for Pakistan that could send American tax dollars to China in lieu of debt repayment. But that was just a beginning. Shortly after Mr Khan went to Saudi Arabia, Mr Trump sent out an uncharacteristically acerbic tweet asking OPEC to lower oil prices.

As if this surreal succession of events was not enough, two remarkable things were soon to follow. As the IMF and Saudi delegations reached Pakistan and started their deliberations, IMF’s chief economist, Maurice (Maury) Obstfeld, was replaced by a Harvard professor, Delhi School of Economics alumnus and Kerala CM’s economic adviser, Gita Gopinath. Obstfeld had announced in July, almost immediately after news of a potential bailout broke, that he would retire at the end of 2018 which was taken to mean December. Ms Gopinath’s husband, now based in Silicon Valley, is a former Indian Administrative Service officer. The second significant development was Trump’s disclosure about his tough talk with the Saudi King.

Now call me paranoid but this is too much of a coincidence. When Nikki Haley was appointed US ambassador to the UN we were told that her selection was made to add diversity to the cabinet and not to please India. But since then Pakistan’s difficulties in the UN have only increased and the US has walked out of the UN Human Rights Council after its first ever stinging indictment of Indian human rights abuses in India-occupied Kashmir. And if you thought Indian appeasement was a Trump administration phenomenon, think again. When the then US secretary of defence, Chuck Hagel, agreed with the assessment that India was stoking unrest in Pakistan, Obama immediately replaced him with renowned Indophile Ashton Carter. Mr Khan then has only inherited an embattled position on the chessboard. And an ambush has begun.

The purpose seems simple enough. Either compel Pakistan to distance itself from China or drive it further towards Beijing’s warm embrace. The former serves America’s purpose of isolating China, or at least it thinks it does. The latter serves India which then can further drive a wedge between Pakistan and the US by claiming that Pakistan has chosen a side in the new cold war. It is sad that we did precious little when India was selling this dystopian and realpolitik worldview to Washington back in the 90s and in early 200s. Since then the Indian occupation of American mind is complete. The current dominant groupthink in Delhi is so myopic that it overlooks the fact that its economy would be the first casualty if such a cold war were to become a reality. But back to our immediate problem. No money.

I assure you the economic condition is direr than you assume. Two reasons. First, I am one of the smaller insignificant pieces on this infinite chessboard. Like any other such insignificant piece I have spent every single day of my career proving my ability, my loyalty and my devotion to the state. Second, since early youth I am given to the superstition that my own wellbeing is directly linked to my state’s.

But jest aside, our economic woes necessitate a national groupthink. That we ought to come together as a nation and find a way out. But sadly, the government is facing four challenges here. One, the media’s refusal to comprehend the basics of economics and the severity of the situation. It creates so much noise that the government has to take a step back. Example of exemptions of non-filers is before you. Second, the Opposition’s desire to take revenge. The PTI, after all, wasn’t cooperative as an opposition party. Third, is the country’s bureaucracy which looks positively spooked. Fourth, our rough neighbourhood is getting rougher by every passing minute. Consider Iran and Afghanistan’s woes and the US posture against China and Russia. Even in India the clouds of an impending economic storm are gathering.

There is some solace too. All major stakeholders of the country, all institutions appear to be on the same page. So far. But what happens if the economic situation deteriorates further and people look for someone to blame is anybody’s guess.

Mr Khan is known for his perseverance, his will to survive and prevail. Upon this infinite chessboard over 200 million of us stand with bated breath to see where the next blow falls and how our new leader takes us out of this mess.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 6^th, 2018.

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