Brace yourselves in May

Turbulence is expected in the month of May, which is booked for controversial and potentially catastrophic decisions and actions. Trump may or may not terminate the sanctions waivers underpinning the Iran nuclear deal or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The two men at the forefront of negotiating with the Europeans over the Iran deal are John Bolton, the US National Security Adviser, and Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State. Both are dedicated anti-Iran deal backers. Bolton has suggested that in order “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran” in an OpEd piece in The New York Times. Pompeo “wants to fix” the Iran deal. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned that the US and its European allies had no “right” to renegotiate a seven-party agreement. Furthermore, when French President Emmanuel Macron came to the White House to convince Trump to stay in the deal, he subsequently criticised Trump in front of the US Congress by highlighting Trump’s climate change denial and steep tariffs on steel and aluminium. A tweet criticising Macron’s looks hasn’t been posted yet.

Trump’s hostility toward the agreement has resulted in drying up of the Western capital and trading partners for Iran, which itself represents a violation of the deal. Iran is usually labelled as the “rogue state” because it allegedly doesn’t follow the international laws and norms. The US doesn’t want to abide by the agreement reached by seven states, all of which are taking care of their end of the bargain. Defence Secretary Jim Mattis said, “Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everybody you meet.” He is nicknamed “Mad Dog Mattis.” Imagine the state of mind of White House officials when the only sane voice is heard from “Mad Dog Mattis” urging Trump not to withdraw from the deal. We will see what happens on May 12.

Trump has announced that on May 14, the US Embassy would be moved to Jerusalem. While Israel celebrated its 70^th anniversary on April 18 according to the Hebrew calendar, Trump chose the May 14 date because according to the Gregorian calendar the anniversary falls on that date. Israel declared its independence on May 14, 1948. On May 15, Palestinians usually celebrate the “Nakba Day”, which literally means “Day of the Catastrophe.” While the Trump administration may not have paid attention to this nuance, the Palestinians, however, did notice. The US Embassy would be moved one day before the Palestinians observe the “Nakba Day.”Adding more explosiveness to the issue is the fact that right around that time, Muslims around the world start the holy month of Ramazan. The decisions and the dates are explosive ingredients here. This May is going to be a charged month. A lot of people are going to make their exits from Shakespeare’s stage.

As for the Iran deal, our best hope is a man who very recently was bashed as the “Little Rocket Man.” Trump this week called him “very honorable” and is meeting him in June to negotiate denuclearising the Korean Peninsula in return for the US to lift economic sanctions on North Korea. On April 27^th South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean supremo Kim Jong-un forged a historic agreement after a politically-engaging encounter in the Demilitarised Zone. The world was watching with interest. And nobody could have predicted the outcome. The fate of the Iran deal would be equally interesting to watch in the wake of the landmark Korean peace accord. Trump might not tear up the Iran deal after all.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 29^th, 2018.

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