Fresh population narrative

It may seem slightly fallacious to argue that Pakistan’s population would have been appreciably lower than 207 million-plus had the distribution of resources among provinces not been dependent on population-based shares. There is a ring of truth to the contention though — because several of the country’s provinces have been bending themselves backwards just to prove they deserve a higher share of resources available under the National Finance Commission.

There is a clear distinction between what is aspired or desired and what can be achieved via higher birth rates. States, however, do not act this way. Responsible states even less so. Thus, while the provinces may have aspired for a larger share (who would not) could they have influenced or have been responsible for runway growth in demographics? To accept such a possibility would be to discount other factors, including the utter failure of population planning officials, that would have just as easily led to an increase in the country’s population. Pakistan finds itself counted amongst Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen and East Timor as countries with high fertility rates and faster natural increase in population.

At a consultative session on April 19^th demographic experts and politicians attempted to frame a fresh population narrative for Pakistan. The proposal that population be dropped altogether as a criterion for resource distribution — on account of its catastrophic impact in the future — in favour of better performance in the area of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is useful and very much doable. It does make a lot of sense to establish SDG centres in the provinces as well as at the local government level. Managing population requires careful planning and implementation such as ensuring balanced distribution of rural-urban migrants, relocation of industries from the cities, and increasing people’s mobility. There should be more emphasis on achievement of demographic goals with the help of effective organisational structure. 

Published in The Express Tribune, April 20^th, 2018.

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