A complicated neighbourhood

The geopolitics of the region that Pakistan sits in the virtual centre of is fiendishly complicated and littered with traps and pitfalls that can trigger an escalation of tensions if not outright conflict. Wars have been fought between many of the states that are our neighbours and may be fought again. And yet and yet — there has to be co-existence as well. There have to be ways and mechanisms by which trade continues, because it is of mutual benefit to all and ultimately something of an arbiter of peaceful(ish) co-existence.

Pakistan is deeply engaged in a project that is going to change the lives of millions of its citizens for generations to come — the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is itself a part of the One-belt-One-road enterprise. The port of Gwadar is a key component of CPEC. Further along the same coastline is the Iranian port of Chabahar and much is currently being made of the potential for tension between Pakistan and Iran because of the Indian investment in the project and the potential rivalry with CPEC. This is a false perception according to a past Iranian foreign minister who was a part of a roundtable discussion at the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs.

It is true that India has invested hugely in Chabahar but the port is a platform open to all players in the region and it has considerable potential for the expansion of Iranian trade — a prospect that not all view with equanimity, particularly the Americans for whom Iran is a bogeyman. India does not have exclusive rights to Chabahar and the trade-cake is large enough for all to have a slice.

The trading relationship between Pakistan and Iran could be considerably better were it not for fears in the banking sector of further sanctions by the Americans if a free trade agreement was implemented, and the Americans have already interdicted the gas pipeline project between the two countries, much to the disadvantage of both. America is fading into isolationism and Pakistan — and Iran — is reshaping a foreign policy more geared to today than yesterday. A complicated neighbourhood — but with more opportunity than threat.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 1^st, 2018.

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