Who will gain from a new political alliance?

Zardari has outwitted all; Chaudhrys, Sharifs and his ‘unpredictable’ allies — all in the name of ‘reconciliation’.

The Chaudhrys of Gujrat, who had fallen from grace following the unceremonious exit of their mentor, Pervez Musharraf, from the Presidency, are back in power with whatever remains of their PML-Q party. The breakaway faction of their party — the Likeminded Group — is incensed, perhaps, over being left out. But the Chaudhrys are least bothered, and rightly so. They have resurrected despite defections. Their murky future has suddenly brightened after a whirlwind political romance with the PPP and the subsequent nuptial. Now, they can at least settle scores with their ‘tormentors’ in Punjab: The Sharif brothers and their League.

The Sharifs are anticipating this. The younger one, Shahbaz Sharif, was quick to denounce it as a “marriage of the corrupt” based on the intent to “plunder the nation’s wealth”. The Sharifs’ party, the PML-N, now fears for its government in Punjab. This is notwithstanding assurances from Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and Chaudry Pervaiz Elahi that the new coalition would not seek to topple their government. But the PML-N’s fears are not unfounded. The PML-Q has discreetly conveyed to its defectors in Punjab, now in the unification bloc, to return to the fold or else the disqualification law would be invoked against them for changing sides. If the bullying works, the PML-N would lose their majority in the provincial legislature and wouldn’t be able to pass the new provincial budget and, hence, lose moral justification to cling onto power.

Nobody but the Sharifs are to blame for their new dilemma. Their rigidity, their obduracy and their vengefulness against Pervez Musharraf and his proteges, the Chaudhrys of Gujrat, is now costing them, perhaps, their political future. Had they shown flexibility, had they shown political acumen, had they buried the hatchet with the PML-Q, today everything would have been in their favour. Unlike the PPP, the Sharifs made few political friends. Initially, the party did make some attempts to reach out to the MQM and Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf, but each time its hawks, like Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, scuttled the plans, albeit unwittingly.

In all this political wheeling and dealing, PPP Co-Chairperson Asif Ali Zardari has come out as a shrewd, sharp-witted politician. Not once, not twice, but so many times he has brought his party’s wobbly government back from the verge of collapse with calculated moves. After the 2008 elections, he manoeuvred his party to preclude any deal between the two Leagues, wooing the Sharifs into the coalition government and isolating the Chaudhrys and their ‘Qatil League’. Once that was done, he comfortably reneged on the ‘promises’ he had made to the PML-N, leaving Nawaz Sharif high and dry. The love-hate relationship between the two parties continues to this day. Zardari, wary of other ‘unpredictable’ allies, decided to beatify the ‘Qatil League’, which has enough numbers in parliament to keep the PPP government in power for the remaining period of its five-year constitutional tenure. But this is not all. Zardari has much more on his mind. The PPP, which has failed to deliver on its election promises thus far, needed somebody to share the blame for its follies and failures. And Zardari tactfully lured the PML-Q to become that somebody, offering the Chaudhrys literally everything they asked for.

But it’s the PPP that will gain the most from this barter. It’s a win-win for the PPP. With the PML-Q on its side, it doesn’t need to worry about the new federal budget or the Senate elections. And if the coalition lasts till the next parliamentary election, which both parties say it will, the PPP will stand a fair chance of returning to power, together with its new ally, despite its dismal performance in the current tenure. Zardari has outwitted all; the Chaudhrys, the Sharifs and perhaps his ‘unpredictable’ allies too — all in the name of ‘reconciliation’.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 7^th, 2011.