Beware divergence

There is no getting away from reality that America is playing both ends against middle, and does not trust Pakistan

Patience is wearing thin in the Pentagon and presumably the White House also. At issue is the ‘safe haven’ argument which links to the ‘do more’ mantra. Now, the Trump administration has informed Congress that it will take “unilateral steps in areas of divergence” at the same time as seeking to expand cooperation where American and Pakistani interests converge. This is the bluntest language yet in the Trump presidency and comes with the first report to Congress since the August 21^st announcement of future American involvement in Afghanistan.

This is the diplomatic equivalent of the gloves coming off, and an indication that the drones that have flown for years over the northwest of the country may be finding targets elsewhere, and ‘elsewhere’ could literally be anywhere. When this was hinted at 10 days ago one of the responses was that any drones so deployed/used would not find their way back home. Pakistan has always had the capacity to bring down the drones and never used it. Both sides are now eyeball-to-eyeball. The report to Congress also says that there are 20 militant groups active in the region (not only in Pakistan) and that Pakistan needs to display a ‘fundamental change’ in the way it deals with terrorist groups. It goes on to say that the Taliban and the Haqqani network have free range across the country. On the plus side it is acknowledged that the military-military relationship with Pakistan is ‘crucial’ to achieving American goals in the region.

There is no getting away from the reality that America is playing both ends against the middle, and does not trust Pakistan to deliver on any undertaking to interdict or eradicate groups that it deems ‘divergent’. Also in line for the stick was Afghanistan, and if the Afghan government is similarly ‘divergent’, then the stick is going to be applied and American commitment to a peaceful resolution to the myriad Afghan problems ‘is not a blank cheque’. It is now down to who blinks first, but it is clear as daylight that America is willing to drop the hammer if ‘divergence’ does not convert to ‘convergence.’ And soon.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 19^th, 2017.

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