Big stick, little carrot

The director of the CIA, Mike Pompeo, did not mince his words. If Pakistan does not eliminate safe havens for terrorists sited within the national borders then the United States will do “everything we can” to destroy them. No room for equivocation there — and presumably Mr Pompeo has the background intelligence to back up his unverified claim. Within hours of this comment the US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis arrived in Islamabad for a day of talks with the Pakistan government. He is here to try to sell the new US strategy for Afghanistan and is going to be aware of the Pompeo statements.

The Mattis line prior to his visit has been more conciliatory, telling a journalist that ‘butting heads’ was not his style. That said, in October 2017 he went on record to say that the US was willing to work ‘one more time’ with Pakistan on the safe-havens issue and that if the talks failed to reach a satisfactory conclusion the USA will be taking “whatever steps are necessary.” Again unequivocal. For its part, Pakistan is more foot-forward than of yore and wants to see ‘reciprocity’ from the Americans.

Hitherto drone strikes have been limited to the border regions of Fata. America has the capacity to strike using drones anywhere in the country. There is an implied threat that if America has what it believes to be actionable intelligence then it will do just that. The consequences of a strike on a target in Punjab, for instance, are going to be grave unless incontrovertible evidence is presented as to the validity of the target. If Secretary Mattis comes with a list of what America has identified as ‘safe havens’ then Pakistan is going to be in an exposed position if it cannot convincingly refute the data. With Trump at the helm and the White House hawks far outnumbering the doves now is not the time to play Russian Roulette. The eternal trust deficit is operant and Mr Mattis, behind closed doors, is going to play hardball no matter his conciliatory overture. It is no exaggeration to say that relations are at a crux. We watch with interest — and some anxiety.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 5^th, 2017.

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