Is war likely between Saudi Arabia and Iran?

Despite tensions flaring, analysts are not convinced that an all-out war will take place yet

The current battle for power between Saudi Arabia and Iran rages on in the Middle East but, analysts believe that the chances of a war between the foes are slim, said a CNBC report.

Several neighbouring countries have been drawn into the conflict with Qatar, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon becoming proxy battlegrounds in the fight for regional dominance. Relations between Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia and Shia-dominated Iran deteriorated recently, particularly over the civil war in Yemen and the political crisis engulfing Lebanon which has seen its Prime Minister Saad al Hariri resign over what he called 'Iranian meddling'.



Now, this has led to speculation that an all-out war could be declared by one or the other Middle Eastern superpowers.

Iran was a "peaceful nation" but that it was prepared for conflict if that was the only option left to it, said a source in the Iranian government, who asked to remain anonymous.

"We love peace, we're not looking for war but sometimes you should be prepared for war," it added.

Riyadh convened its Arab League allies in Cairo, on the weekend, for a meeting to discuss what it said were "violations" in the region. The group criticised Tehran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah and called for a united front to counter Iranian interference, Reuters reported.

"The kingdom will not stand by and will not hesitate to defend its security," Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir told the assembly, according to Reuters, adding, "We must stand together." Iran's foreign minister responded by saying Riyadh and its allies were "pursuing divisions and creating differences."

According to Pat Thaker, regional director for the Middle East and Africa at the Economist Intelligence Unit, against a backdrop of "historic intense rivalry" between the two countries, it "doesn't take much for tensions to flare up."

If there was a conflict between Riyadh and Tehran, Thaker said "it would be the most dangerous times for the Middle East and the world. But neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran wants war." Thaker also branded the tensions between the two nations as a struggle for religious authority in the Middle East, saying that Saudi Arabia was prepared to go to extreme lengths to stop any spread of Iranian influence.



On Sunday, Israel's energy minister confirmed that there had been what he called "covert" contact between Saudi Arabia and Israel amid concerns over Iran but suggested that Saudi Arabia had wanted to keep "the ties quiet," Reuters reported.

Proxy wars

Saudi Arabia and Iran have rival interests and alliances across the Middle East. Regional conflicts in these countries often see the two supporting different factions that are often split down religious lines.

With Yemen's civil war, for instance, Riyadh backs the Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, a Sunni while Tehran backs the Shia Houthi rebels loyal to the country's former President Ali Abdulla Saleh.

Tensions ratcheted up a notch weeks ago when Saudi Arabia accused Iran of being behind a ballistic missile attack carried out by Houthi militias. The missiles were intercepted as they headed to the Saudi capital, Saudi Arabia said, adding that it perceived the attack as a "declaration of war" by Iran. Iran termed the allegations as "unfounded."

Rifts between Saudi Arabia and Qatar have also risen because Qatar restored diplomatic ties with Iran. Attentions have also turned to Lebanon after the surprise resignation of Prime Minister Saad al Hariri due to what he said was Iran's meddling in his country and his fears of an assassination plot. There has been speculation that Hariri's resignation was orchestrated by the country's leadership and that he was held against his will, claims which he has denied.



Cold war

Marcus Chevenix, a Middle East and North Africa (MENA) analyst at TS Lombard, said Saudi Arabia's foreign policies, under the aegis of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, are hard to understand.

"Domestically his (Mohammed bin Salman's) actions are radical but comprehensible, but on a foreign stage they're very hard to make sense of at all," Chevenix said.

"His intervention in Yemen was rash yet we could at least see what he was trying to do. His intervention in Qatar was, yet again, maybe a little reckless, maybe a little quick but it was certainly effective against Qatar. But in Lebanon, it's really hard to see what this does for him at all."

The analyst believes that it might have been a "reactive move" aimed at bringing down the coalition government of Lebanon to somehow destabilise the position of Hezbollah. He perceived it as a pushback against Iran by whatever means available but suggested that war was not currently a possibility.

"It's hard to see where Saudi Arabia could get to a position where its actions were intolerable to the Iranians. Iranian actions are already intolerable to Saudi Arabia, we know that, but the Saudi Arabians struggle to really find a way to aggravate Iran, that's why we're not looking at a hot war situation right now," he said.

This story originally appeared on CNBC.