Youth bulge challenges

Last month, the World Economic Forum released its annual Human Capital Report 2017, which ranks 130 countries on how well they are developing their human capital on a scale from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) across four thematic dimensions — capacity, deployment, development and know-how — to capture the full human capital potential profile of a country.

Pakistan is at 125^th place out of 130 countries, trailing behind Sri Lanka (70), Nepal (98), India (103) and Bangladesh (111). It has an average score of 46 on the index compared to the global average of 62, meaning that the talent of more than half of Pakistan’s human capital (54%) isn’t being tapped due to insufficient and irrelevant education and skills. The report states that the human capital potential in Pakistan is held back by low rates of enrolment, poor-quality primary schools and skills mismatch.

This report has only reinforced the dismal picture of Pakistan portrayed by other similar human development indices. Although composite indexes are by no means a final word on human development owing to methodological quirks and data limitations, they, nevertheless, give sufficient sense of the big picture and help stakeholders identify areas for intervention. When analysed in the context of the provisional result of the sixth population census, these reports should suffice to set the alarm bells ringing in Islamabad.

According to various estimates, people below the age of 30 account for nearly two-thirds of Pakistan’s 207.8 million population, making it one of the youngest countries in the world. Pakistan’s large youth bulge represents both an opportunity and a risk. On the one hand, it means a rise in the proportion of working age population and entry of a large number of youth into labour market. If these new entrants to the labour market can be absorbed into productive activities, it will boost the income per capita and result in a demographic dividend. On the other hand, if these entrants can’t find decent work opportunities, then the youth bulge is likely to become a demographic time bomb.

Although a host of factors may explain our poor state of human development, two explanations stand out. The first key factor is our flawed development approach, which has traditionally prioritised investments in physical infrastructure over investments in human capital. Historically, we have not invested much in our human capital. Our education spending continues to be the lowest in South Asia. An overview of our education system generates disturbing questions in relation to both access and quality. Consequently, up to this date, we have not been able to achieve sustainable growth.

The second main factor is the growing disenchantment and disengagement of young people from politics, which has over the years not only generated serious crises of legitimacy but also relegated young people to the margins. A number of individual and structural factors explain why the youth have disengaged from politics. These include but are not limited to youth disillusionment with traditional politics, prevalence of high levels of civic illiteracy, existence of entry barriers to politics, and waning importance of ideological politics. The weakening of labour unions and the ban on student unions has also contributed strongly to the de-politicisation of youth.

Today, young people are considered a powerless political constituency that politicians can afford to ignore. Although the emergence of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) as a major political force partially helped reverse the trend and rejuvenated political interest in youth, it has not yet translated into a meaningful change in the way young people are being viewed and treated. Measures aimed at empowering young people are often tokenistic in nature.

If the current trajectory persists, then our youth bulge is likely to turn into a demographic disaster. Large cohorts of illiterate, underemployed, and jobless youth can be a perfect recipe for social and political instability.

For Pakistan to harness the demographic dividend, it is essential to invest significantly more in human capital and job creation. In this regard, the government should prioritise improving access to quality education and creation of productive employment opportunities.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 16^th, 2017.

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