It is Tillerson that has to make diplomatic and geopolitical sense of the Tweetstorms as they come out of the White House. It is now close to a month since President Trump announced his new strategy for South Asia, and there was much speculation that the relationship between the USA and Pakistan was close to breaking down. There has been considerable rowing back from that analysis in recent days, and Tillerson whilst he has his reservations about the political circus internally sees Pakistan as a vital part of the reshaping of relationships regionally. It is still possible that if a capricious President Trump decides that he does not like whatever Pakistan is or is not doing then his administration might remove Pakistan from its list of non-Nato allies and reduce economic and military assistance. In that event he may find himself at odds with his own secretary of state.
Also in play in the last week has been US Defence Secretary Mattis who spoke of the Indian decision not to send its own troops to Afghanistan ‘after keeping in mind Pakistan’s consideration.’ It is difficult to conceptualise a more dangerous prospect, but not difficult to envisage given the depth of Indian engagement in Afghanistan which can never be viewed from this end of the telescope as purely altruistic. Secretary Mattis at least has some awareness of the delicacy of the balance in the region. The situation is fast evolving and Pakistan needs to be nimble-footed if it is to adequately protect its interests — and that includes keeping its own house in order internally.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 6th, 2017.
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