Census: counting the impact

One of the more likely political fallouts from the latest census results is expected to leave Punjab with fewer seats in the National Assembly following a small but significant decrease in the province’s population growth — which has dropped to the enviable figure of 2.13 per cent below the national average of 2.4 per cent. And as usual somebody’s loss is another’s gain. Both Khyber-Pakhtunkwha and Balochistan — whose population grew by 2.94% and 3.37, respectively since the 1998 census — are likely to gain from Punjab’s loss: K-P by as many as five seats and Balochistan by two seats. This is still a hypothetical scenario and one that could be challenged and is open to a set of factors that will probably come into play in the coming weeks and months. Under the population formula, Punjab stands to lose its current share of parliamentary representation — 54.4 per cent of the National Assembly seats or 148 as of the 2013 elections. Right up to the 2008 elections the share of Punjab was more or less steady at 55 per cent. Today the province seems to be less inclined to exercise its domination over the other federating units and favours a more equitable approach in the wake of decentralisation moves.

Another likely impact for Punjab is a proportionate reduction in its share of the federal divisible pool in the National Finance Commission Award. When the last proper delimitation was carried out in 2002 the province was given fewer seats proportionate to its population. It is also possible for parliament to increase the total number of seats in the National Assembly and provincial legislatures through an amendment to Article 51 of the Constitution but political circles do not appear to favour such a plan.

The electoral reforms package adopted recently by the National Assembly is awaiting Senate clearance and would make it binding for the election supervisory body to conduct fresh delimitation after every census. If such an exercise is ordered, it could perhaps take six months or longer, raising the spectre of delays in the 2018 poll schedule. With the election clock ticking, the poll authority may well have to content itself with minor changes only. That would indeed be unfortunate.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 30^th, 2017.

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