A grave warning

It is impossible to underestimate the gravity and the importance of the warning issued by the head of the Iranian armed forces on the morning of 8^th May. It will be recalled that 10 Iranian border guards were killed by militants from the Jaish al Adl group last month. This is the sectarian outfit that has mounted attacks in the past on Iran, alleging it is acting in support of what it sees as a persecuted minority within Iran. They were killed by what are described as ‘long range guns’ though whether this refers to artillery or to high-powered rifles is not made clear. Either way, Iran is clearly not satisfied with the response it has seen and heard from Pakistan since.

The warning is explicit. The state news agency IRNA quoted Major General Mohammed Baqeri as saying that ‘unless Pakistan ‘control(s) the borders, arrest(s) the terrorist and shut(s) down their bases…we will hit their safe havens and cells wherever they are.’ There is no lack of clarity in the statement and it must be assumed that Iran at some future point may strike inside Pakistan with whatever forces, ground or air, that it considers appropriate to neutralise a perceived threat from the Jaish al Adl. Serious as the warning is it is not the first time that tensions have reached this pitch. In 2014, Iran warned that it would send troops to retrieve five border guards kidnapped by Jaish al Adl, but the intervention of a Sunni cleric defused the confrontation. Four guards were subsequently returned but one was killed by Jaish al Adl. At the time Pakistan warned that such a move would be a violation of its sovereignty.

The border area with Iran has long been unstable and home to gun and drug runners as well as extremist groups that move to and fro. Border ‘incidents’ are not uncommon, but in this instance it appears that the patience of Tehran has finally snapped. Assurances in the last week by Pakistani officials that we would deploy additional troops to the border regions appear to have had little impact. We should not doubt Iran. It has the capacity to strike at will, and in all likelihood the intelligence to make strikes that are tightly targeted. Whether it would take the considerable diplomatic risks associated with such a move is a known unknown, and Pakistan is closely engaged with Iran on a range of ongoing projects notably in the energy sector.

Pakistan has the capacity — as well as in all likelihood the same intelligence as to the disposition and assets of the Jaish al Adl — to move decisively against it. The country is also mindful of its relations with partner states such as Saudi Arabia with which there are close fraternal ties. The complexity of these interwoven relationships is increased by the civil war in Yemen that has Riyadh supporting the elected government and the Iranians backing the Houthi rebels via its local proxy forces. Pakistan is in the frame as it has recently agreed to provide leadership to a sketchy coalition of Muslim states which does not include Iran — against terrorism. This is a delicately balanced artifice, and the role that Pakistan potentially has as a broker and arbiter of regional peace and stability is both opportunity and threat. Get it wrong and the consequences are a box of troubles like no other that Pandora released. Get it right and the downstream benefits regionally are considerable.

The fact of the matter is that Pakistan cannot afford to get into an exchange of arms with Iran. In purely military terms Iran is a well-equipped modern state with the capacity to extend any strike beyond its borders. The leadership and the Foreign Office need to pay heed to the warning from Iran, and do so in such a way as to be transparently in tune with Iranian concerns. Now is not the time to dither or prevaricate.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 9^th, 2017.

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