The jittery French elections

Support for Le Pen and her populist agenda is likely to influence forthcoming governments’ actions and policies

In an era of rising populism in Europe, Britain’s fast approaching exit from the European Union and the US under Trump, the result of the French polls’ first round has sent a sense of relief to Paris, Brussels and Berlin. Being considered a ‘cradle of Western democratic values and European integration’, the French Republic has been saved, at least temporarily, by not slipping in the hands of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Front [FN]. The first round of the hotly contested French polls was won by the liberal candidate Emmanuel Macron with 8.6 million votes, while Le Pen came second with 7.6 million votes. Both candidates are now in the second round of polls, scheduled on May 7^th 2017.

Interestingly, the pro-EU Macron launched his campaign for presidency last year. Never been elected to political office and no longer member of a political party, Macron was appointed as a senior adviser by Francois Hollande in 2012. He later briefly served as minister of economy. Macron aims for French national unity. His election manifesto promises reforms in taxation, employment and the French welfare system. Macron is also a critique of US president Donald Trump’s environmental and economic policies.

Le Pen, on the other hand, is a Euro-sceptic and calls for France’s pullout from the EU. Her party calls for closing French borders and cutting down immigration. Exploiting the on-going refugee crisis, which is already a divisive issue for Europe, she intensified her anti-immigration and anti-Islam cry in her election campaign. In a hard-line speech while launching her presidential race, she said: “We don’t want to live under the yoke or the threat of Islamic fundamentalism.”

This was not the first time Le Pen raised the threat of Islamic fundamentalism to mobilise her supporters. After the deadly Paris attacks of November 2015, which killed 130 people and injured dozens, she demanded a crackdown on Islamic extremists. Similarly, in the wake of the Nice attack in July 2016, she was swift to blame ‘Islamist fundamentalists’ behind the incident. Clearly, Le Pen’s anti-Islamic rhetoric and stance guaranteed her a lot of votes. The results of French polls’ first round indicate an increase of her support base.

Taking over the leadership of FN from her father, Jean-Marie, in 2011, Le Pen has been successful in bagging a staggering 7.6 million votes, 2.8 million more than her father got in 2002. The acceptance of her appeal to such a large population is enough to send shockwaves through the pro-EU political circles. This is the second time that FN has become successful in contesting the run-off. First time the party managed to attain in the final race under the leadership of Jean-Marie in 2002.

The polling survey predicts that Macron would defeat Le Pen by 62pc to 38pc in the May run-off. This is also because Macron is likely to get support from voters of other Socialist, left and centre-right candidates. Macron has already garnered backing of the defeated conservative candidate Francois Fillon, who, in order to oust Le Pen from gaining French presidency, has called his followers to back Macron. By repeatedly drawing a connection between immigration and Islamist fundamentalism, Le Pen has bolstered support for her party. According to Sylvain Crepon, a National Front expert, Jean-Marie also made a similar move in the past. After the Paris train attacks of 1995, his electoral support sharply increased when he drew a link between immigration and security.

The popularity and support base for Le Pen and her populist agenda is likely to influence forthcoming governments’ actions and policies about immigration and other such related issues. She already extended her influence on the previous centre-right party of Socialist president Francois Hollande to adopt a tougher anti-immigration stance in the wake of the Paris attacks. For now, it appears that Le Pen would not be elected. However, we have seen surprising outcomes of certain elections over the last year. Nevertheless, the increasing support for the far-right populism that she stands for will remain a challenge for France.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 2^nd, 2017.

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