Turkey has chosen

There can be no doubt that the Turks have made a historic choice in their voting in a referendum that validates a proposed package of constitutional amendments that will grant a new, and sweeping, range of powers to President Recip Tayyip Erdogan. The vote was close but not as close as some had predicted with the ‘yes’ campaign gaining 1.25m more votes than the ‘no’ camp. The opposition is saying that not all votes have been counted and that they will contest some of the results but their protest is likely to be in vain, and Turkey has turned a corner — but whether for better or worse is far too early to judge. It will be 11-12 days before the final count is known.

Close to half of the population of Turkey opposed the proposed changes to the constitution, a clear reflection of the national polarities socially and politically. This is not the result the ruling party hoped for. It wanted a clearer mandate than that which emerged and the seeds of future troubles now lie on the table for all to see. Turkey is now going to move from being a parliamentary democracy to a presidential republic. The post of Prime minister will disappear. The split between Turkey and the European states can only widen with this result, with the Europeans concerned that Turkey is sliding towards autocracy and that at some speed.

The new executive presidency is unlikely to become a reality until after the 2019 elections, and claims by the victors that the result was a win for all Turks has to be viewed with considerable scepticism. The aftermath of a failed coup are still echoing through a riven society that has to rebuild its higher education structures almost from the ground up. Thousands remain in custody, for who knows how long. The vote is over, but there is a sense that the struggle has only just begun.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 18^th, 2017.

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