A delicate balance

As the regional geopolitical currents shift virtually all the countries with which Pakistan has close relations are recalibrating their interactions with us. Pakistan now finds itself in the cockpit, and how affairs are managed in the coming year will do much to define our wider regional role. Of particular current interest is the concern expressed by Iran regarding the possible role to be played by a former army chief as the leader of the coalition of Muslim states brokered by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Unsurprisingly, Tehran has not been invited to join the partnership by Riyadh. There is a long history of friction between the two states.

Iran has now gone public with its reservations about the issuance of a No-Objection Certificate (NOC) to General (retd) Raheel Sharif, and this despite assurances given by Islamabad to Tehran that the appointment would in no way affect the tenor of the bilateral relations between the two countries. Those assurances had been made clear by the current Chief of the Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa. They do not as yet appear to be sufficient to allay Iranian concerns and it is not difficult to see why.

It is vital for Pakistan that relations with Iran remain on an even keel, not least because of Iranian input into the energy mix that Pakistan purchases internationally. Saudi Arabia is another market where energy is bought, and there is a long-standing strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia that needs protecting as much as does the relationship with Iran. Between the energy needs sit the wars in Yemen and Syria, with Iran and Saudi Arabia supporting opposing sides in both. Pakistan has wisely opted not to commit troops to the Yemen conflict and must continue to maintain a studied distance from it. The question in many minds, a lot of them Iranian, is whether the appointment of Raheel Sharif is going to in any way disrupt the internal kinetics of a multilateral relationship that has the potential to come unglued if not handled with the utmost diplomatic dexterity. Emollient assurances must be backed by ground realities, and Islamabad has to walk the walk not just talk the talk if Tehran is to be truly reassured.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 5^th, 2017.

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