A messy divorce

On Thursday 23rd June 2016 the UK held a referendum in which most of the population was entitled to a vote. It was to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union (EU). The ‘Leave’ vote won by 51.9 per cent against the vote to ‘Remain’ at 48.1 per cent. The turnout was 71.8 per cent and more than 30 million people exercised the right to vote. On 29^th March 2017, nine months after the vote, Theresa May, the British prime minister, triggered the process of withdrawal by dispatching a letter to the European Council which invoked Article 50 of the EU treaty and nothing in Europe is ever going to be the same again. The largest, most complex and potentially the most acrimonious divorce in the history of international relationships is now under way.

It is unclear as to whether those that voted to leave the EU understood what it was they were voting for and how it might affect their lives. The probability is that few had any real depth of knowledge or consequences. For many it was all about immigration, turning off the tap that allowed the flow of ‘foreigners’ into the UK that were stealing jobs, consuming the National Health Service and bringing a dangerous and volatile imbalance to the racial and ethnic mix. Nearly half the population that voted chose to stay in the EU, and their minds are unlikely to have been changed by Mrs May calling for ‘unity’ – indeed the reverse is more likely.

The two sides are already set up to disagree over the fundamentals of how the process agenda should be set, and what items are to top the list, be agreed upon before all others. There are two years to do the job. Ten is a more likely time frame and nothing much is going to happen before the German elections in September. Thereafter the ratification of the deal will take another three or four months all of which leaves a year for the actual talks to take place. This was never a marriage made in heaven, and there is going to be blood before it is ended.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 3^rd, 2017.

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