Under pressure

The 2008 attacks in Mumbai remain a bone of contention between India and Pakistan, with India particularly sore that the alleged architect of the attacks continues to roam free — but perhaps not any more. The announcement that Hafiz Saeed has been placed under house arrest in Lahore on Tuesday 30^th January may take the heat out of the situation, but much is going to depend on what the government does beyond the anodyne solution of house arrest. It is further being reported that he and five associates are subject to a travel ban and their assets are frozen. Recent months have seen Saeed as an advocate for the Kashmiris and he has sought to distance himself from the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the vastly wealthy charity he heads up — Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD). He commands considerable support in sections of the population, and has some support/sway in elements of governance both provincial and federal.

Why he has suddenly become the focus of attention is unclear, but there are strong back-story indications that America has been twisting arms and the government had little choice but to comply. The mood of the new Trump administration suggests that it has the capacity to make savage responses to what it sees as either a threat or non-compliance. With the possibility of a visa ban in the middle distance compliance, at least in terms of minimal response, was the least-worst option.

There is likely to be street agitation in response to the government moves, and JuD representatives have been contemptuous of the government for ‘buckling’ to the US. Given the capacity of Saeed to duck under the radar and rework his organisation there seems little that the government has done that is going to cramp his style. He is not being held incommunicado, and whilst his known assets may be frozen, we may be sure that he has unknown assets. India is yet to comment on the move, but given the depth of anger still evident regarding the Mumbai attacks a slap on the wrist for Saeed will not be a game changer.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 1^st, 2017.

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