How secure is Pakistan?

In contemporary world, economic and political factors play more dominant role in defining national security

Of many, one of principle factors of demise of the once mighty Soviet Union was widespread economic struggles triggered by massive expenditures on military and weapons, which agitated political and civil unrest in almost all the states. Before the Cold War era, national security was based broadly on military dimensions (strengthening of military, number and variety of weapons, etc.), while the non-military dimensions (i.e., economy and political stability, etc.) played a limited role. But after the Cold War, world powers and their allied countries realised the importance of non-military aspects and started rethinking the security paradigm.

It is now widely acknowledged that a country’s national security is inextricably linked with economic security and political stability, where national security cannot be dealt in isolation. As economy and politics of a country affect directly the lives of the people, a weak economy and a difficult political situation can lead to civil unrest and hence weaken the national security. Conversely, a bright economic outlook and political stability ensure social stability, which in turn makes the country stronger on the security front.

In this context a question strikes one’s mind that, is Pakistan’s politics and economy stable and secure enough to tackle the challenges of national security, in the changing security paradigm? And a subsequent question arises that, is there any threat to Pakistan’s national security?

Our history of economic progress and political stability tells a deplorable story and hence, the national security. During the last 15 years, we lost more than 50 thousand innocent civilians as a frontline state in the ‘war on terror’. The recent State Bank of Pakistan report revealed that the total direct and indirect loss and damage to Pakistan’s economy, as a result of the ‘war on terror’, is around $118.3 billion from 2002 to 2016. But as compensation, Pakistan received only $14 billion through the Coalition Support Fund, which is just peanuts for such a huge loss.

Pakistan could have averted that immense loss of economy and innocent lives, if it was strong on both political and economic fronts. However, it is important for us to know that where we are standing now?

As of today, there is much economic stirring in the country, mainly due to the CPEC and low oil prices. The stock market is breaking record every day, in fact, the best performing in the region, due to political stability and improved law and order. Growing foreign reserves, improving growth rate, significant reduction in power cuts and successful completion of the IMF programme are the other factors painting the brighter picture of the economy. On the political front, apparently, civil-military ties are improving, showing military non-involvement in political affairs after 2008. We have witnessed Pakistan’s first peaceful transfer of power in 2013 and heading towards the second peaceful handover of power, due in 2018.

But do the above-mentioned facts point to economic security and political stability? My answer is No.

There are still many things to worry about. Pakistan’s majority macroeconomic indicators do not tell a blissful story of the economy, and growing strife among major political parties coupled with protests and sit-ins is pushing the country towards political instability.

On the economic front, Pakistan’s export performance is on declining trend; $24.5 billion in 2012-13 to $17.9 billion in 2014 in 2014-15 (Economic Survey 2015-16). Trade deficit is widening, standing at 5.9 per cent of GDP. Cost and ease of doing business in Pakistan is also not globally competitive. Worker remittances are on decline; stands at five per cent of GDP in FY 2015-16, as compared to 6.9 per cent in FY 2014-15. Total level of public debt and liabilities has swollen to Rs22,461.9 billion, which is 75.9 per cent of GDP (SBP 2015-16), and likely to worsen in the next few years. Tax-to-GDP ratio is still stands as one of the lowest in the world, stands at 10.5 percent of GDP. Except China, there is declining trend in investment flows, stands less than one percent of GDP. Unemployment is on the rise, where millions of graduate are on the streets to find jobs.

On the political front, Pakistan is still struggling with political stability, owing to largely the Panama scandal, and allegations of election rigging. We have witnessed 120 plus days sit-ins and protests on election riggings in 2014 and attempt of locking down the federal capital Islamabad on Panama leaks. Cyril leak, which is being linked with national security, was another dismal civil-military episode.

This gradual degradation of macroeconomic indicators and deteriorating political situation means that the present state of the economy and politics is ‘not’ in a position to face existential and looming security challenges. Such a development on the economic and political fronts might breed civil unrest, social chaos, promote corruption, breakdown of law and order and absolute failure of governance, which pose serious threat to national security.

So in this situation what needs to be done?

In the contemporary world, economic and political factors play a more dominant role in defining and moulding national security. Hence, for the economy to thrive Pakistan needs to strengthen its economy through structural reforms in taxation system, providing a business-friendly environment, encouraging investments through ensuring ease of doing business, borrow prudently to prevent the growing debt level to unsustainable level and enhanced investment in human capital i.e., investing in education and health infrastructure.

For political stability, both political and military leadership of Pakistan should realise that only an economically independent and politically stable Pakistan can effectively deal with national security challenges. For that both civil and military leadership should continue to show patience and restraint for improved Islamabad-Rawalpindi ties. To ease the political tensions, political parties should refrain from politics of mudslinging and confrontation, and should strive for a politically stable Pakistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 24^th, 2016.

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