Will the Paris Agreement unravel?

Donald Trump has been dismissive of the climate change threat

While it is not too long ago that the Pentagon under Obama had described climate change a ‘threat multiplier’, with the potential to exacerbate existing sources of friction around the world. Conversely, Trump has been dismissive of the climate change threat. In an interview with the New York Times, while Trump refused to repeat his promise to abandon the international climate accord, he has not given any assurances to the contrary either. The impact of his impending presidency on the slowly building global resolve to tackling climate change thus remains a suspenseful topic.

While not a big fan of Hollywood activism, I could not help but appreciate the recently released documentary, Before the Floods, made with the collaboration of academy award-winning filmmakers, environmental activists and narrated by Leonardo DiCaprio, a UN appointed Messenger of Peace. In the footsteps of An inconvenient truth, the 2006 documentary showcasing US Vice President Al Gore’s campaigns to spread awareness of the dangers of global warming, this movie shows how climate change is not a distant threat. DiCaprio travelled around the world to witness climate change firsthand and to highlight the fact that unless we do something, the situation will become untenable.

This new movie draws attention to the alarming impact of deforestation in countries like Indonesia for palm oil cultivation, and that of major emissions by not only China, but India as well. The dilemma faced by poorer countries to address energy shortages which are hurting their economies, and depriving their populace of electricity supply for extended periods, and curb emissions is also acknowledged. In fact, it also points out how many developing countries need to not only contend with the problem of growing energy demand, but are yet to provide electrification to a significant proportion of their populations. Currently, fossil fuels used to produce energy are cheaper than investing in alternative sources, but investing in alternative sources offers both the developed and the developing world the opportunity to contend with this above-mentioned dilemma. Last year, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change brought most countries together, including the US, to come up with voluntary aims to curb climate change. The US finally pledging to an international agreement to curb climate change was considered a major step forward, even if the need for a carbon tax to raise revenues for investment in alternative energy, or an effective compliance mechanism to ensure implementation of pledges were not achieved.

However, there was growing concern in the lead up to the US elections where Trump kept pledging that we would not only disentangle the US from the Paris Agreement but also withdraw funding from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and redirect climate programming funds to infrastructure projects.

Trump’s transition team and Republican lawmakers have argued that leaving the Paris agreement will be simple, because it hasn’t been ratified by the Senate. However, since Obama helped usher the deal into force early this year, it means that any country that was a party to the agreement couldn’t leave until it completed a four-year withdrawal process. The US, under Trump, could take a shortcut and exit the UNFCCC, which can be done in a year rather than in four. Or Trump’s administration could drag its feet in carrying through on Obama’s pledges to cut emissions, as will probably happen in many other countries as well, due to lack of political will or institutional capacity.

It is encouraging to see other industrialised countries, as well as emerging ones, such as India and China, so far reiterating their resolve to stick to their pledges. Yet, states which have not yet ratified the Paris Agreement could try to slow down action on carbon emissions, following the US administration’s shifting posture on this issue. Officials from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other oil producing states already seem relieved by Trump’s victory because of his support for fossil fuels.

The fate of the slowly emerging consensus to curb emissions thus seems to have taken an unexpected turn within this past month, even though climate change threats remain unabated.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 25^th, 2016.

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