A ‘No’ for India

The trading of nuclear materials is a tightly regulated but hugely profitable business. It is a sensitive issue; and principally those sensitivities revolve around nuclear proliferation and the prevention thereof. The global regulatory body is the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) which India, with the support of the USA, has been trying to gain membership of for many years. The most recent NSG meeting was in Vienna when it considered the admission of non-NPT members — India and Pakistan. The extraordinary plenary session of the 48-member group had been convened specifically to consider the Indian application and it found against. India is not to be given membership of one of the world’s more exclusive clubs. At least 12 states had reservations, which included China — a close ally of Pakistan as well as a trading partner with India — and India has been forthright in its blaming of China for leading the anti-inclusion group.

The context is complex but boils down to there being a majority of NSG members of the persuasion that any formula for new membership should be non-discriminatory and applied to all non-NPT (other states will become ‘nuclear’ as years pass) states. The formula should be without prejudice and encapsulate the international non-proliferation regimes that are cornerstoned by the NPT. Given the size and diversity of the group it is unlikely that an early consensus is going to be reached, and there are voices that say that China is stonewalling India which is a potentially significant player in the nuclear supplies market — a potential supplier that could edge China when it comes to deal-making.

Thus it may be that the Chinese motive may not be entirely altruistic in seeking a level playing field for all, but it is a move that will find favour in Pakistan which is also seeking membership of the NPT. This is the second time in a year that the NPT has reached the same conclusion and in the short-to-medium term the decision must be regarded as settled though not definitive indefinitely, and for now the door to NPT for India is firmly shut.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 19^th, 2016.

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