Playing with the Big Boys

Although he is unlikely to have realised it at the time and quite possibly later, Indian PM Modi got his head handed to him by the BRICS nations. The BRICS summit was not the place to play poker with stone-eyed high rollers like Russia and China and inveigle them into a position that suits your domestic narrative. The BRICS states: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, comprise two of the most powerful states in the world after the US, and two of the most powerful states in the southern hemisphere. India is something of a lightweight compared to other members, and Mr Modi, to quote an observer ‘does not know when to fold’. The BRICS group is not just an opportunity for smiles and photo-ops, it is about hard business. China is probably the most kinetic member of the group, and the state that carries the greatest heft when it comes to organising other states, including India with which it has a dynamic trading relationship, into a shape conducive to the achievement of its own long-term goals. Peripheral but closely related to BRICS is the Chinese relationship with Pakistan which although a non-BRICS state is key to Chinese exploitation of its investments in Central Africa in particular.

Thus it is no surprise that China weighed in on the Pakistan side by not toeing the Modi line, essentially backing the Indian opposition parties in doing so. China has zero interest in isolating Pakistan and very considerable interest in India and Pakistan de-escalating their conflict over Kashmir which to say the least is inconvenient for them. Terrorism is the headline issue but trade is the running subtext, that and the expansion of wealth and stability nationally and regionally. The Modi move bought him nothing ultimately, and if he wants to play Big Boys Games then he needs to study the Big Boys Rules first.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 19^th, 2016.

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