Afghanistan in downward spiral

The slide towards an uncertain future in Afghanistan has been noted in these columns several times in recent months, but the last week is of particular import given the violence and gravity of events within it. Militarily and in terms of the security of the populace in Kabul as well as other major cities — is at an all-time low. The Taliban or their proxy affiliates are penetrating security rings within the cities on an almost daily basis representing a substantial failure of the intelligence agencies. The complex attack on September 5 was made up of several elements. Two suicide bombers attacked the defence ministry, synchronising their detonation in order to maximise casualties by hitting those that were the ‘first responders’ to the initial blast. At least 24 died and over 90 were injured.



It is perhaps significant how briefly this event occupied the world and local headlines in a media saturated with blood and explosions. Later, on the same day, there was a truck bomb in the city and on September 6, the offices of a prominent NGO, Care, were attacked by multiple gunmen. They were all killed. It was the fifth attack in the city in 24 hours. Two weeks ago, the American University in Kabul was attacked killing 13. Two faculty members of the university remain ‘missing’ after being kidnapped. At least 80 died on July 23 in an attack claimed by the Islamic State with perhaps 150 injured, numbers are still unclear.

Outside the capital, the insurgent campaign carries on and is nowhere being rolled back by the Afghan National Army. The Taliban are threatening Lashkar Gah, the capital of the southern province of Helmand as well as Kunduz, which they held briefly last year. The Taliban continue to demonstrate an ability to mount both large and small scale operations more or less at will, flying in the face of the government’s statements that despite appearances to the contrary the battle against them is being won. It is not.

Beyond the battlefields, the international community struggles to put together credible attempts to reverse the tide. Within the month, there is to be a conference in Brussels at which international donors are expected to reaffirm their pledges of financial support for Afghanistan, though it is patently obvious that throwing money at this crumbling country is going to do little or nothing to stop the rot. Three months ago, Nato similarly pledged support at a meeting in Warsaw — little came of that either.

Regional diplomatic efforts are similarly plagued by serial failure. The never-useful Quadrilateral Group made up of Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the US has fallen into irrelevance as neither Kabul nor the US seem interested in breathing life into it. Its death-knell was sounded by John Kerry, the US secretary of state, who has announced that the US, India and Afghanistan are to hold trilateral talks in order to facilitate the peace process, excluding Pakistan and, as ever, excluding the Taliban in any of their several iterations. A rare foot-in-mouth moment for Mr Kerry.

Pakistan comes in for stick from Kabul for not doing enough to attack Taliban elements within its own borders, and Islamabad ripostes by asking just what Afghanistan is doing to fight the Taliban decanted over the border by Operation Zarb-e-Azb. Fingers are pointing in all directions as to exactly whose fault this catastrophic mess is. In purely military terms, the Taliban groups have the upper hand now in Afghanistan, and short of a massive deployment of foreign troops — which is never going to happen again — there will be incremental gains by them that will eventually accrete to a point where they are a defacto government in terms of the territory they hold and crucially administer. If donors and contiguous countries want to do something useful rather than chasing their expensive tails, they should be working on Plan B — just how to deal with a country where much of the territory may soon be administered by the Taliban?

Published in The Express Tribune, September 7^th, 2016.

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