Step-change in Turkey

Turkey is a country in flux politically, and as the last two elections have indicated, a country polarised. Events at the top of the political ladder in the last week have been dramatic. The leader of the ruling AKP, Ahmet Davotoglu, has announced that he is stepping down, thus leaving the job of prime minister. Effectively this will be seen as him having lost the battle with President Tayyip Erdogan who is bent on the creation of a powerful executive presidency. The political shakeout comes at a time best described as ‘inconvenient’ as Turkey has a number of balls in the air, the dropping of any of which may have profound consequences. In his departure speech, Mr Davotoglu vowed that he would remain loyal to the AKP, but with the prospect of a third parliamentary election in 18 months on the horizon, political loyalties may well be strained.

The move comes at a time when Europe needs Turkey’s help in managing the burgeoning immigration crisis that is the fallout from the Syrian civil war. It was Mr Davotoglu who brokered the controversial scheme whereby the EU would be able to ‘trade’ some of its unwanted refugees and return them to Turkey, a deal underpinned by large sums of euros. Whether the deal will stand with him gone is an open question. Whoever follows him as prime minister is going to be more pliable, willing to go along with the proposed changes to the constitution that would create an executive presidency, a move viewed by opposition parties as being in the direction of increased authoritarianism. Opposition newspaper Cumhuriyet called the move by Davotoglu a “palace coup”, which may be overstating the case but it certainly does nothing for public confidence at a time when domestic terrorism is at a high point, the Kurds are again at war with the Turkish state and the Islamic State is leaving its bloody calling-card across the country. Stability and peace seem far away in the Turkey of today.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 7^th, 2016.

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