Politics — today and tomorrow

The politics of Karachi shares many features with that of the rest of Pakistan. However, its most peculiar characteristic is the centrality of ethnicity. The MQM attempted to become a nationwide political party in the past by diluting its ethnic character, but its periodic crises forced it to return to its ethnic roots. The press conference by Mustafa Kamal, a former mayor of Karachi, on March 3, has demonstrated three major features of politics in Karachi: the link between politics and criminality, the issue of linkages of Indian intelligence agency RAW with some MQM activists, and the reassertion of the ethnic card by the MQM.

The MQM was dismissive of the press conference by Mustafa Kamal by comparing this attempt with the previously failed efforts to challenge the party.

It is too early to predict the real impact of current dissident activity in Karachi’s politics. It depends to a great extent on whether Mustafa Kamal is able to attract open support of some activists within the MQM and outside, and how the establishment responds to it. Furthermore, the capacity of Altaf Hussain to firmly control the party despite health and media constraints on him are a testament to the MQM’s capacity to respond to the new challenge.

There is one serious charge in the press conference that pertained to the alleged links between the MQM leadership and RAW. Such charges have surfaced in the past, going back to the 1990s. However, no previous government, including that of General Pervez Musharraf, pursued these charges. The MQM shared power with the PML-N, General Musharraf and the PPP even when these charges existed. How do we know whether Pakistan’s security and intelligence agencies will now investigate these charges for their final disposal?

The ethnic identity will continue to persist in urban Sindh, especially in Karachi. The politics of the MQM can be challenged effectively only by another ethnic-based political party that is able to win over support of those who currently look towards the MQM for the protection of their rights and material interests. Nationwide political parties like the PML-N, the PPP or the PTI may win some seats in urban Sindh. The electoral balance will stay tilted in favour of the MQM or any other political party with similar credentials. Therefore, the attempt by Mustafa Kamal to carve out an autonomous political role is significant because this can lay the foundation of an ethnic alternative to the MQM.

The PTI welcomed the position taken by Mustafa Kamal because its two adversaries, the MQM and the PPP, were criticised by him. However, the PTI is not expected to benefit from the new developments in Karachi as it lacks local leadership that can encourage the MQM loyalists to abandon the ethnic mindset.

The PPP has refused to facilitate Mustafa Kamal or any other leader to challenge the MQM. The basic reason is that while hitting the MQM, Mustafa Kamal has also targeted the PPP by holding Rehman Malik responsible for some of the ‘misdeeds’ of the MQM. While maintaining distance from the Kamal venture, the PPP will closely monitor if there is any significant change in Karachi’s ethnic politics with the objective of improving its electoral fortunes.

The PPP faced charges of corruption, mismanagement and poor governance by Zulfikar Mirza in 2015, who embarked on a confrontation with Asif Ali Zardari. However, his scathing criticism of the PPP and Zardari was forgotten by the public within a couple of weeks and the media shifted to new issues. One wonders if the same may not happen with the revolt by Mustafa Kamal.

The only party that has remained unscathed is the PML-N. Mustafa Kamal made no adverse comments about this party or its leadership. If we examine the political developments over the last one year, the PML-N has been the most fortunate party because it has not faced any serious political pressure by any political party after the sit-in by the PTI in August-December, 2014. The MQM and the PPP have faced the wrath of Rangers and NAB as well as that of the FIA in Sindh.

The PML-N has been lucky so far. Its comfortable rule in Punjab and at the federal level has led its leadership to think about the continuity of its rule beyond the 2018 general elections. If present trends continue, such optimism may not be misplaced.

The PML-N’s political agenda for the future depends on its continued monopoly of political power in Punjab till the next general election and the persistence of a strong impression that there is no alternative to the PML-N in the province. Such an impression can persist if NAB does not actively investigate corruption in the higher echelons of the Punjab-based power elite and Rangers do not decide to take effective action against the sectarian and militant groups based in Punjab.

The current over-confidence has led the PML-N leadership to first pass the Women Protection Law in Punjab and then hurriedly carry out the death sentence of Mumtaz Qadri. This has angered primarily the religious groups with Barelvi traditions. The religious groups with Deoband and Ahle-Hadith traditions are already unhappy over the Women Protection Law. Some of their major leaders joined the Barelvi protest on the death sentence. The Barelvi religious groups are now furious and would like to take on the government in one way or another. The only positive point for the PML-N government is that mainstream political parties are not expected to join them.

The next two to three months are critical for the nature and direction of Pakistani politics. In addition to the new pressures from religious circles, the PML-N may face the heat of the issues relating to corruption and militancy in Punjab. It will have to explore definite options for the successions in the army and the chairman joint chiefs of staff committee. All these are sensitive issues and require prudent handling. There are ample possibilities of interesting political developments during the summer.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 7^th, 2016.

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