Don’t worry about the government

Advising Pakistanis not to panic is as hopeless as asking Afridi to refrain from trying to hit a six on every ball.

In the hurly-burly of daily politics, it can be easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. With the JUI-F ditching the government, the MQM waffling on its support and the PML-N offering ultimatums, premature obituaries for the PPP government have already been penned. The most optimistic diagnosis has the coalition on life support. The men in jackboots and khaki, they would have us believe, are about to restore military rule after a democratic illusional intermission.

There is no need for such pessimism. Both the system — democracy — and its current manifestation in the form of the PPP-led coalition government are safe for now. Mostly, this is due to the maturity — or cravenness, depending on your point of view — of the PPP. Coalition governments by their very nature cannot survive without a lot of give and take. And the PPP has been particularly adept at giving till its opponents have nothing left to ask for.

The recent U-turn over electricity prices, which was aimed at placating the PML-N and which successfully wooed back the MQM, is typical of the PPP modus operandi. Just when it seems like the government has reached the brink and is facing imminent dissolution, the PPP walks back. We saw exactly this scenario play out in the very first crisis faced by the democratic set-up: The restoration of the judges. Then, with the passage of the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, Zardari willingly surrendered most of the powers of his office, becoming the first Pakistani to do so.

Since praising Zardari is anathema to any right-thinking Pakistani, let’s take the most uncharitable view possible of his action. By all means, call him an unprincipled hypocrite, a leader who is constantly sniffing the political air and adjusting his policies to safeguard his throne. This is still a healthy and reassuring sign for democracy. We have suffered a surplus of Napoleons; it’s nice to finally have someone who values political stability over grandiose actions.

This only explains why a no-confidence motion against the government will not materialise. To account for why a military takeover is unlikely (given our past, I am still too afraid to say impossible), we need to consider the effect of an independent judiciary. This wild card has never been in the mix before. All previous coups in the country were accompanied by a measure of popular support, mostly due to the corruption of elected leaders.

Having a Supreme Court that has, occasionally for good, often for ill, redefined its role to become an equal player in governance, has finally given us an opposition with teeth. From overturning legislation it doesn’t approve of to making robust use of suo motu notices to haul up allegedly corrupt politicians, the Supreme Court is providing the accountability that has always been the post facto rationale for army rule.

Stability, though, comes at a cost. The current dispensation will be too gutless to pass, or even propose, any legislation that does not enjoy healthy popularity. Repealing, or even amending, the blasphemy laws will be a non-starter for a government which has put a premium on its survival. If any reforms are enacted, they will be done so slowly and incrementally. The second half of the government’s term will be marked by political intrigue but legislative stasis.

Advising Pakistanis not to panic is as hopeless as asking Shahid Afridi to refrain from trying to hit a six on every ball. It’s what we’re wired to do. And we certainly have plenty to fret about, from an intractable war against militancy to a debilitating economic meltdown. Crossing the government’s health off the list may postpone the inevitable ulcers.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 13^th, 2011.