Observers sceptical of negotiations; officials in Kabul seem confident.
The quadrilateral meeting is likely to focus on a strategy that the Afghan side floated during the first round of talks in Islamabad earlier this month.
Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Hekmat Khalil Karzai, who led his country’s delegation, explained that the ‘roadmap’ consists of three elements or phases.
The roadmap
“The first phase, specifically, is the pre-negotiation period. The second component is peace talks and direct negotiations, while the third is the implementation of the plan.” Karzai was optimistic that the four-nation mechanism could help restart negotiations with the armed militants.
He also said Kabul is ready to negotiate with the Taliban, including the main Mullah Akhtar group, and splinter Mullah Rasul clan.
The second round of talks will mainly depend on what the Afghan government has planned to entice the Taliban with to join the negotiating table.
In the cold of winter
“The Afghan government believes we have an opportunity in January and February, and the Afghan people need to see a change in this period of time,” Karzai said in Kabul.
Setting deadlines seemed unrealistic, as the process would not be so easy to begin. Karzai’s remarks could be seen in the context of fast growing concerns in Afghanistan that the Taliban could intensify attacks as the weather warms.
Kabul could justify its deadlines in the wake of a consensus in the quadrilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Heart of Asia conference. It was decided action would be taken against those would refuse to join the dialogue. However, Pakistan has a different approach.
Holding off
Foreign Affairs Adviser Sartaj Aziz came up with an alternate stance. “Distinction between reconcilable and irreconcilables, and methods to deal with the latter, can follow once avenues for bringing them to talks have been exhausted,” Aziz said at the Islamabad meeting.
He also clarified that “threatening to use military action against the irreconcilable [Taliban] cannot precede the offer of talks to all the groups and their response.”
As the process would be Kabul-led and owned, it is the fundamental responsibility of the Afghan government to unveil its strategy for the revival of talks. Shifting the responsibility of bringing the Taliban to the table cannot work.
The hand that holds the reins
Karzai, on the other hand, thinks it is the sole responsibility of Islamabad to force the Taliban to join the talks. “We have clearly told Pakistan that the Afghan people and politicians do not have patience like last year,” he said on his return from Islamabad.
However, many would not agree with his tactic. Better sense must prevail and identify that peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan is now a shared responsibility and success of the process mostly depended on the Afghan administration.
Although the Afghan government is upbeat over the four-nation mechanism, the country is deeply divided over the potential success. As the process has just started, any misunderstandings created by the media could harm it.
Mandegar newspaper’s editorial section read: “What had taken place in Islamabad illustrates Pakistan and observer countries are treating the peace issue like a joke, and are not serious about bringing peace to Afghanistan. We know this is fruitless and nonsense that the Afghan government is making efforts to hold direct talks with the Taliban because the militant group is not in a position to make its decision independently.”
Arman-e Melli, another private daily, says the Islamabad talks to prepare a roadmap did not produce the desired results, as there was no serious deliberation on peace as expected by the people of Afghanistan.
However, state-owned Hewad was hopeful about the process. “The people consider the role of America and China in the new phase of the peace efforts effective; therefore, this has again raised hope among people. Armed opponents of the government should take full advantage of this opportunity,” it added.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 16th, 2016.
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