Ramadi retaken

The announcement on December 28 that the Iraqi Army aided by a militia had recaptured Ramadi from the Islamic State (IS) is welcome, but comes with a cautionary note. The city has been almost completely destroyed in the battle, either by the IS, which blew up what it could not hold, or by the air forces of Iraq, Britain and the US, which reduced much of the rubble to little more than piles of grit.

The Iraqis had been ignominiously shunted out by the IS in May 2015. Pictures of them in retreat symbolised a lack of will to fight as well as an army that was inadequately trained and poorly led. It was a loss of face in a place where ‘honour’ matters, and Ramadi retaken is as much honour restored as a straightforward military gain.

The victory is not yet complete and as much as 30 per cent of the city may still be held by the IS. There will be mopping-up operations for days to come, but for now Iraq owns the symbolism.

Yet it cannot bask in glory because a bigger and far more dangerous goal is ahead — Mosul. In Ramadi, the IS booby-trapped everything it could, and it must be assumed that Mosul, where it has had longer to prepare for an attack that was going to come one day, is going to be an even deadlier proposition.

The IS has dispersed itself among the civilian population, a tactic it has employed virtually everywhere it has taken and held.

For the IS, the loss of Ramadi is just the latest in a string of defeats. It has lost ground in both Syria and Iraq. November saw the fall of Sinjar, retaken by Kurdish forces that have acquitted themselves particularly well in the fight against the terror group.

Kurds will be key to cutting the IS supply lines preparatory to the fight for Mosul as well as between Syria and Iraq, the two ‘wings’ of the IS. It is far too early to talk of a tide being turned, but military success in Ramadi has eroded the myth of invincibility. The IS can be beaten, but it is always a hard fight.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 30^th, 2015.

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