Partners with Iran

The shape of Pakistan’s foreign policy continues to evolve in ways and directions that are going to be of long-term benefit to the nation. There have always been ties with Iran besides a long shared border, but these have not been exploited to their fullest, in large part because of the threat of American sanctions that hung Damoclean over both countries. The nuclear deal between the American and Iranian governments is now proving to be a game changer. Although not completely dissipated, the threat of American sanctions on Pakistan in the event of a warming of relations with Iran has receded to the horizon rather than dominating the foreground. If our economy is to grow, then it is going to need energy, a lot of energy. Iran has energy to sell and Pakistan would like to import it through the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline — a solution that has hitherto found little favour with the Americans.

Now the Iranian foreign minister has made it plain during his visit to Islamabad that Iran not only supports growth in Pakistan via energy sales, it also supports the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The CPEC has quickly evolved into a credible long-term development plan in which there are many winners. Not all are going to win at the same time, but Iran will be a collateral beneficiary of the CPEC. An upswing in prosperity in Balochistan will likely lower tensions in the long run — good for both countries.

What will require some deft footwork diplomatically is the Iranian development of Chabahar port, backed by India, which is the next stop on the Iranian foreign minister’s itinerary. The Chabahar port may be seen as a rival to Gwadar, a possibility denied by the Iranian foreign minister, but the perception is difficult to gainsay. The dynamics of regional development are extremely complex, as partners and potential partners have to position themselves with states that have hitherto been less than friends, even if they are not enemies. Uncomfortable as it may be at times, the Age of the Frenemy is upon us, and Pakistan and Iran are beneficiaries.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 16^th, 2015.

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