Electricity needs: Ministry to revise demand forecast upward

PM considers estimates of 4-5% rise in consumption unrealistic

ISLAMABAD:

With expectations of surplus power production in 2018, the government has decided to revise upward the forecast for increase in electricity demand in coming years by considering the possible surge in national economy.

Recent projections suggest that the demand for electricity will rise 4% to 5% per annum, but the government considers it unrealistic.

According to officials in knowledge of the developments, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has tasked the Ministry of Water and Power and the Planning Commission to come up with realistic demand forecasts as the current estimates do not paint a true picture.

Speaking in a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Energy held last month, the premier pointed out that suppressed demand would emerge after an expected increase in gross domestic product and electricity supply for 24 hours a day.



The committee decided that the projections should be revised keeping in view the potential surge in economic activity in coming years.

Water and Power Secretary Younis Daga briefed the committee about consumption estimates as well as likely increase in power production in the next three years.

According to him, 2,740 megawatts, 7,472MW and 6,322MW will be added to the power-generation capacity in 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively.

Railways Minister Khawaja Saad Rafique asked whether these were actual electricity generation figures or the installed capacity of projects and plants. The power secretary replied that the forecasts reflected the installed capacity of power plants.

Petroleum and Natural Resources Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi said gas supply would be stepped up to Guddu power plants by December 2015 and power production would start by June 2016.

The secretary also outlined the demand and supply scenario for the period July 2015 to November 2018 and told the committee that surplus electricity would be available by November 2018.

He said the transmission and distribution network was also being upgraded in accordance with the additional production capacity.

As new plants were being developed, the revamping and laying of transmission lines was a must, which was being adhered to strictly, he added. Already, most of the power distribution companies have upgraded their systems except for a few areas covered by Multan, Peshawar and Sukkur electricity supplying companies.

Work on Chakdara (Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa) grid station could not be completed due to problems in the way of acquiring land. And work on grid stations in Mardan, Swabi and Charsadda will take over a year to complete.

The cabinet committee directed the Ministry of Water and Power to formulate a comprehensive plan for generation and distribution of electricity in the country.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 1^st, 2015.

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