WASHINGTON: The number of Afghan security forces fell sharply during 2014, thanks partly to desertions and casualties, according to newly declassified US military data released on Tuesday that could add to the debate over planned US troop withdrawals.
The US strategy in Afghanistan hinges on the ability of Afghan forces to secure the country despite a still-resilient Taliban insurgency and increasingly limited support from the shrinking foreign forces supporting them.
President Barack Obama's administration, which is under pressure from Kabul and Congress to slow the withdrawal, again signaled on Tuesday it was open to adjusting plans to cut US forces by nearly half this year.
"A plan is something you adjust over time. And so I think we can adjust our plan over the next year or two," new US Defense Secretary Ash Carter told a Senate hearing.
The Afghan national army's (ANA) total numbers fell to 169,203, down 15,636 or 8.5 per cent, between February and November last year, a US government watchdog reported in data confirmed by the US military.
Afghan army has declined by 15,636 personnel (or 8.5%) since February 2014 http://t.co/MGCuRZYFuF
— SIGAR (@SIGARHQ) March 3, 2015
Afghan troop numbers DOD provided to SIGAR from April to October 2014 were incorrect http://t.co/5qBRT2hwzx
— SIGAR (@SIGARHQ) March 3, 2015
DOD’s inconsistent reporting on Afghan troop numbers indicates long-standing & ongoing problems http://t.co/uklmL6Sw4w
— SIGAR (@SIGARHQ) March 3, 2015
DOD's inaccurate Afghan troop #s discovered in Sept, however military failed to notify SIGAR http://t.co/5qBRT2hwzx
— SIGAR (@SIGARHQ) March 3, 2015
Due to "accounting error" DOD provided inaccurate Afghan troop numbers to SIGAR http://t.co/5qBRT2hwzx
— SIGAR (@SIGARHQ) March 3, 2015
SIGAR has seen large quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in the Afghan army numbers http://t.co/0emuz71K8v
— SIGAR (@SIGARHQ) March 3, 2015
SIGAR questions reliability of Afghan National Security Forces numbers http://t.co/A5n9P2ebA3
— SIGAR (@SIGARHQ) March 3, 2015
DOD's inconsistent reporting on number of Afghan security forces is deeply troubling http://t.co/uklmL6Sw4w
— SIGAR (@SIGARHQ) March 3, 2015
IG Sopko: I remain concerned about the ongoing inconsistencies in the reporting of data to this oversight office
— SIGAR (@SIGARHQ) March 3, 2015
No explanation yet given as to why correct Afghan troop numbers shared with DOD, but not SIGAR http://t.co/51Rl25U8DY
— SIGAR (@SIGARHQ) March 3, 2015
"This is the lowest assigned ANA force strength since August 2011," the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction said in a report, noting the ANA levels include Afghan air force personnel.
The US-led coalition told Reuters the total crept back up to 173,000 uniformed personnel in January, but acknowledged that Afghan commanders last year "did not set recruiting goals at levels sufficient to outpace attrition rates."
Afghanistan's national army and police suffered heavy losses in 2014, the bloodiest since the war against Taliban militants began in 2001. The forces also suffered desertions.
Republicans in Congress say hard-won gains could be lost in much the same way sectarian violence returned to Iraq after the US withdrawal.
Carter, who just returned from a trip to Afghanistan, said he firmly believed the US withdrawal strategy should be informed by events on the ground. He did not venture a guess about what Obama might decide.
Obama is due to host Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in the United States later in March. "I don't know what decisions the president will make in that regard or the timetable on which he'll make them," Carter added.
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