Ghani has to change all that to regain normalcy. War has fatigue; the Americans, the Taliban, the Afghans, and the Pakistanis, all have hit against that threshold having lived among ruin, blood and turmoil for decades now. And in there lies that window of opportunity that Ghani could exploit to find peace and normalcy, and the process of rebuilding.
Two developments in recent days are instructive. The first thing after the new administration (pun intended) came into power in Kabul, the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) was signed, but then in recent days there has been news that President Barack Obama has authorised the continuation of the combat role for his residual forces in Afghanistan even after the planned withdrawal of the rest continues unabated. This is significant, since for the last 18 months, the security transition had meant transferring the mission over to the Afghan forces. Therein, even the chaperoning of the Afghan forces had been discontinued, with the Americans literally restricting themselves to only counterterror missions against al Qaeda. The Taliban were for the Afghans to deal with.
Ghani, perhaps, felt the need for an active American engagement in security operations and found it appropriate to ask for it when signing the BSA. Perhaps, it was Abdullah Abdullah, his partner in power, who pushed Ghani into asking for such re-initiation of the combat role to counter a likely resurgence of the Taliban as a security threat, but in effect use the consequence as a political plank to keep the Pashtun Taliban out of any settlement while retaining eminence in the unity government. It could well have been both; the region though must be ready to deal with the consequence — the Taliban-Afghan government rapprochement may still be months, if not years, away. And that has implications.
One other development was the Pakistani army chief’s recent visit to Washington. It grew in significance as it went along. Perhaps it was there, or during his visit to Kabul before proceeding to Washington, that General Raheel Sharif learnt of the extension of the combat role of the American forces in Afghanistan. It is also possible that it was as a consequence of his discussions with the Americans and the Afghans (remember, Ghani recently was a guest of the general in Rawalpindi) that such revision of the task was instituted. It is likely that the Pakistani Army complained of the sanctuaries that the TTP enjoys in Kunar and Nuristan across the Afghan border even as it fought and dismantled the base of those groups that threatened both Pakistan and Afghanistan from North Waziristan. It is equally likely that the issue of capacities, or lack thereof, came up when discussing the inability and inaction of the Afghan forces to undertake missions to wrest control away from those holding Afghan areas as sanctuaries.
That threw up two options: Pakistan could extend its own capacity and capability to neutralise those who target Pakistani territory from Kunar and Nuristan with implicit diplomatic complexities; or importantly, the US could extend its resident capacity to do the needful. That the latter was politically more acceptable is more than obvious. Relate this to the counterterror strikes that US drones have undertaken in recent days in those areas where there are TTP sanctuaries, with reports that Fazlullah was the intended target. The dots begin to connect.
There were affiliated ramifications, too, of General Raheel’s visit. President Obama had a telephone chat with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif as the general finished his week-long visit, where the protocol extended to him was nothing short of what is extended to a visiting political head. The Americans have all to be happy for with the general. He has eliminated the Haqqani bases from Pakistan, a long-time American demand, and has hit off well with the new administration in Kabul, which can only mean better chances of finding stability in Afghanistan. Both add credibility to America’s mission as it heads out of Afghanistan. In doing so, the general in turn may have added some space for greater congruence in US-Pakistan relations.
Locally, though, it became a bit awkward. Prime Minister Sharif, on his recent visit to New York, could not elicit such interest from the Americans and his trip was a bland one. With the general, the flavour was entirely different. If he had indeed delved into some effective diplomacy and political closing of ranks with the Americans, it was perhaps appropriate that the prime minister, too, was brought in, even if nominally. Hence, the call. If statements are any indication, the government went on to exact its own price for the varying treatment: Sartaj Aziz, goofed (deliberately?) while referring to why Pakistan would not act against the Haqqanis earlier; while Defence Minister Khawaja Asif was outright critical of American policies, which in his opinion had pushed the region into such turmoil.
The prime minister made two distinct recommendations in turn: he asked the American president to help resolve the Kashmir issue with India, and two, he probably asked him to use some influence on Imran Khan to ease some pressure on his government. The American ambassador duly visited Imran Khan at his residence the next day. Whether this will be sufficient to placate some of the prime minister’s ire remains to be seen. But it has the making of some coordinated functioning among the three sides, perhaps for the first time since 2002 when America first moved into Afghanistan, bringing about a closure to a war that for the most part was fought in fragments and without unity of purpose.
Will this re-found congruence with the Americans be long term? Only time will tell. But what the extended combat role of the American forces will result in — in terms of the Taliban reflux — is a question that will need greater comfort between Afghanistan and Pakistan so that they can tend to their common problem. To meet that challenge, both countries need to hold onto the promise that Ghani exhibits.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 29th, 2014.
Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.
COMMENTS (14)
Comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive.
For more information, please see our Comments FAQ
@David Salmon: Dear David, I do not know about Rex Minor, but I would love you to explain what it is that we do not understand, and of course how you would solve the current, never ending and expanding problems created by Washington, Tel Aviv, London, Islamabad, and General Sharif..
@Rex Minor, @Sexton Blake, and all the rest who have complained of American dictation to Pakistan: You live in a dream world that has little relation to reality. You do not understand how things work, how government functions, what it can do and not do. Your demonology fails to understand how Pakistan and the U.S. can and do have common interests, without either one being able to dictate to the other. Why not address the actual questions presented by the author, with reasons for or against, as they affect the public interest? Earn your right to comment by contributing something -reasonable- to the discussion. You are beating a dead horse.
@Naeem Khan: You are right Sir that the american administrations have always looked for under dogs for their leaderships and it is easier to manipulate military men versus the independent democrats in the middle east region. However, this has all changed now since their war in muslim lands and failure of regime change poicy has antagonised friends and foes and today American is in tatters. The man who was elected the President on hope for change is sitting with his Gutanimo bay prison , the blacks rising against the white in the country and the European allies disillusioned with the return of the cold war. This is not to say, however that collaborators are not wanted by the yanks.
Rex Minor
@TBS: I will believe in you sir but others will not since Mr Nawaz Sharif, the political leader once before decided to choose the COAS of his choice based on his whims and not on merit.
Rex Minor
Over the last 50 years or so, at least, the American have had a game plan, and to help it along have not to covertly pressured, at the political level, Pakistan, Australia, Canada, most European countries and the UK to help them. Although the assistance has not always been provided in the same location prime examples of the assistance have been in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya. Pakistan may not have had boots on the ground inside Afghanistan, but its assistance to the US has been immense, expensive, and is still continuing. To satisfy peoples pride let us say that the Pakistan assistance has been purely spontaneous and voluntary.
We should not forget that Americans always propped up the military men of the developing countries and would rather see them in control because it is easy to manipulate, coordinate and control the military dictators than parliaments of those countries. Egypt is the prime example, when Obama said about Morsi that he was not Americas friend but not enemy either. That statement told us what was in store for Egypt.
@ TBS
As a proud former military man it would be sacrilegious to admit that the real powers behind the power sits in CENTCOM and D.C.
So if Mr Manmohan Singh complains to the USA, Mr Sheriff calls him a village woman but he does exactly the same thing and complains to the USA. Now who is the village woman, curious minds want to know?
Indians have been offering Pakistanis Hyderabad biryani but Pakistanis want Chinese st cooked in American ps.
@Sexton Blake. Sir, coming from an army background where my father was a general and I myself resigned when I was was a major, I assure you that you have no knowledge how army chiefs are appointed in Pakistan. If you think any foreign power can influence appointment of army chiefs, then i suggest you you need to gain better knowledge before making such 'off the target' comments.
@bahadur khan: Yours is wishful thinking Sir about the old model burnt out pilot. Let us recollect that the first military rule was not instigated by late General Ayub Khan but a very vibrant youg colonel who refused to take orders from the then ion; general Ayub and the division commanders were compelled to follow hs lead. It is not impossible to speculate by using the Hegel logic, that another young Turk with the battalion commander rank is waiting impatiently to take over the control of the army from the old comrades of former General Parvez Musharaf? Just a thesis based on educated guess and speculation. In any case the marshal has no chance since he is aligned with the political outfit which has had his turbulent and non turbulent reigns and lost so much in process.
Rex Minor
It would seem quite obvious that with General Raheel's appointment there has been a concerted effort between Pakistan, the US, and to a limited extent Afghanistan, to seriously damage the various militant groups in Pakistan/Afghanistan, particularly in Waziristan. The US had not been happy with General Raheel's predecessor, and the recent visit by General Raheel to the US was undoubtedly part of a coordinated plan between Pakistan and the US to increase pressure on the various disparate militant groups in Pakistan/Afghanistan. The US/Pakistan leaders are slow learners. They have been attacking militants for 13 years with little success, and now they are merely planning more of the same, with greater intensity, which will produce continuing reprisals via what the Taliban do best. Low intensity warfare. I would suggest that the Pakistan people will suffer for quite some time to come with no solution in sight. I doubt that Afghan/Pakistan insurgents will go away any time soon..
Shehazad Chaudary AVM is no doubt a talented person.. With these columns he has leadership aspiration. Being Punjabi, defence, back ground one is in position to make a claim., The columns describes many possibilities, none of a vision. Being a 65 year old person with heredity,, the vision will be always be bleed the eastern neighbour, bang tables in UN, make some trade talks. china all weather. usa etc. This will fetch him atleast no 2 position in next goverment
The author may have the overview of the region and committed loyalty to the Americans which his new COAS has confirmed to the Pemtagon in his recent visit, but because of his military training and background can never follow the ground reality in the negbouring country. Hamid Karzai served well the people of his land who were subjected to occupation and refused to buckle against the powerful foe, Dr Ashraf Ghani will follow his predecessor, regain full independence as soon as possible and protect the dignity of his people leading them to prosperity in coming years. The Talibans resistance will end and melt away as the foreign occupation ends.
Rex Minor