Cyclone Nilofar undergoes rapid weakening, may dissipate before making landfall in Pakistan

Storm is likely to further weaken into a depression over northeast Arabian Sea near the coast of Sindh and Gujrat

KARACHI: Cyclone Nilofar has weakened rapidly and converted into a “cyclonic storm" about 560 km southwest of Karachi, according to the country's meteorological department. 

According to Pakistan Meteorological Department, the cyclonic storm would continue to move north-eastward with a speed of 12 km/hour in next 24 hours. The storm is likely to further weaken into a depression over the water in northeast Arabian Sea near the coast of Lower Sindh (Thattah) and Indian Gujrat on Friday evening/night.

According to The Weather Channel, Cyclone Nilofar has undergone rapid weakening, and may now dissipate before ever making landfall in India or Pakistan.

"Strong wind shear began hammering Nilofar, displacing thunderstorms away from the center of circulation, thus weakening it to the equivalent of tropical storm," The Weather Channel reported, adding that vertical wind shear and dry air may degenerate Nilofar to a remnant low as soon as Friday, before ever making landfall.

 Below is a satellite estimated intensity plot with time of Nilofar from the University of Wisconsin's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies showing intensification followed by weakening.

Satellite intensity plot of Cyclone #Nilofar via @CIMSS_Satellite. Rapid weakening follows rapid intensification. http://t.co/2XIdBpl3lY

— Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) October 30, 2014

Earlier, Chief meteorologist Tauseef Alam, while speaking to Express News, said the cyclone will not directly hit the shoreline of Pakistan and will only pass by it at the distance of 250km in the evening or late at night. He, however, added that the cyclone - which at the moment is in Oman's coastal areas - will touch the Indian state of Gujarat.

The cyclone will cause widespread rain and thundershowers. Isolated heavy falls accompanied by strong gusty winds are expected in Lower Sindh and adjoining coastal areas of Balochistan from today evening till Saturday.

The sea conditions along Pakistan coast are likely to remain rough to very rough and the fishermen of Sindh and Balochistan are advised to keep their activities suspended up till Saturday.

Durrani visits Abdullah Shah Ghazi's mazar

Days after making light of Cyclone Nilofar, Sindh Assembly speaker Agha Siraj Durrani visited Abdullah Shah Ghazi's mazar today.

Durrani offered prayers and laid a wreath on the revered Saint's grave, watch a video here: 



Want to know why was this cyclone named Nilofar? Read our story here.

The Sindh government declared emergency in 10 coastal districts – including six of Karachi – and authorities have prepared to shift thousands of people out of the way of the storm.

Expected impact of the cyclone on coastal areas of Pakistan and India. SOURCE: WEATHER.COM

The South Asian region is routinely hit by storms between April and November. Nilofar comes after Cyclone Hudhud that slammed into India’s east coast earlier this month, leaving some 20 people dead. The tail end of that cyclone swept into neighbouring Nepal causing snowstorms that claimed more than 40 lives in one of the country’s worst Himalayan trekking disasters.

Cyclone Phailin, which struck India last October, had winds of up to 220 kilometres per hour and caused extensive damage.



DESIGN: MOHSIN ALAM

Correction: In an earlier version of this article, Gujarat was incorrectly mentioned as an Indian city. The error is regretted.