With the Mehsuds out is this the demise of TTP?

Mehsud tribe departure likely to exacerbate divisions within insurgency

ISLAMABAD: The departure of arguably the strongest faction of the Pakistani Taliban, the Mehsud tribe, has thrown the Tehreek-e-Taliban leadership into deep disarray while also forcing the government back to the drawing board when it comes to finding a negotiated settlement with the insurgency.

The Mehsud tribe, widely considered the most important of the various groups that comprise the TTP, is headed by Khalid Mehsud alias Sajna, whose followers have been involved in bloody clashes with followers of the late Hakimullah Mehsud, who are now led by commander Sheharyar Mehsud, since March.

“The TTP is about to lose its central prominence due to the separation of Mehsud fighters from the main organisation,” Rustam Shah Mohmand, a tribal affairs expert, told The Express Tribune.

According to another source, TTP chief Maulavi Fazalullah is being sidelined by several top TTP leaders as is evident from the departure from Azam Tariq, a former TTP spokesperson, who announced the decision of the Mehsud tribe to break away from the TTP.

"We announce our defection from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, we have chosen Khalid Mehsud as the new leader for South Waziristan," Azam Tariq said on Wednesday while joining Sajna’s ranks.

The source went on to reveal that commander Sheharyar Mehsud is among the remaining senior leaders still associated with Maulavi Fazalullah. However, Mohmand believes Sheharyar’s loyalty to Fazalullah would not last long either.

“Shaharyar Mahsud will not obey Fazalullah for long as he holds more sway among militants than the TTP chief himself,” Mohmand said.

Rustam Shah Mohmand and other analysts foresee more affiliated groups defecting from the TTP, including the Punjabi Taliban headed by Commander Asmatullah Mauavia, who is likely to join Sajna’s group as he also in favour of a negotiated settlement with the government of Pakistan.

Hafiz Gul Bahadur, a Wazir by tribe and a key figure of the Pakistani Taliban has already distanced himself from TTP leadership mainly because he has an unofficial non-aggression pact with the military and the TTP has refused to back down on attacks against the country’s security forces. For this reason, analysts say, Bahadur is also likely to throw his weight behind the Mehsuds.

“Bahadur is likely to play mediator between Sajna and the government for a permanent peace accord,” Rustam Shah Mohmand said, adding that Fazalullah is unlikely to find any meaningful support among his remaining subjects after the breakaway of the Mehsud tribe.

Sajna was a contender for the TTP's leadership after its former chief Hakimullah Mehsud was killed in a US drone strike last November. He is seen as formidable rival of Fazalullah, who he has defied on numerous occasions. “Sajna flatly refused to abide by decisions recently taken by Fazalullah,” said Mohmand.

“Divisions in TTP have provided a great opportunity to the government and military to set the tone for peace talks,” said Mohmand. However, he added, it could be an equally dangerous situation due to the volatility of the group at present.

The Haqqani network and al Qaeda may intervene and initiate a rapprochement process between Sajna and TTP. However, experts believe there are bleak chances of reconciliation.

“Sajna being a son of the soil is not willing to accept a Swati TTP chief (Fazalullah), who is also far away from the main battlefield in North Waziristan,” said an observer, adding that the Haqqani network may also side with the Mehsuds in case Sajna refuses to make peace with Fazalullah.

“Fazalullah has no future in TTP it seems. He was seen as a compromised leader after the killing of Hakimullah Mehsud and now the Pakistani Taliban has found a more ‘capable’ leader in Sajna,” Rustam Shah Mohmand said.

‘TTP’s demise’

A spokesperson for Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) Jan Achakzai went as far as to say that the separation of the Mehsuds from Fazalullah would lead to the demise of the TTP.

“It is a major success of the government in Islamabad. Peace will return to Waziristan soon as the tribal region will be neutralised after the demise of TTP,” he said, adding that Sajna is a strong believer in peace talks with the government as he is keen to end the suffering of his tribesmen.

Achakzai believed the old leadership of TTP would not be able to this jolt to since over 75 per cent of TTP fighters belong to the Mehsud tribe. He urged the government to engage TTP factions in other parts of Fata as many of them favoured a negotiated settlement.

“Peace negotiations should also be initiated with the TTP commanders in the tribal agencies of Bajaur, Mohmand and Orakzai.”

Rustam Shah Mohmand believed the split between pro and anti-negotiations camps among the Pakistani Taliban would push TTP commanders in Mohmand, Orzakzai and Bajaur in favour of peace negotiations with the government.

Further, analysts fear, large-scale bloodshed among militants is also a possibility if Sajna’s group asks his rivals to leave North Waziristan. “However, all small groups of TTP-affiliated militants will prefer to either leave North Waziristan on their own or part their ways with the TTP before they are ordered to vacate the main tribal hub of militancy,” Mohmand added

The announcement came a day after army chief General Raheel Sharif visited South Waziristan, one of the seven tribal districts along the Afghan border.  Earlier this week, the military resorted to air strikes on militant hideouts last week killing at least 70 people.