The writer is a former editor of the Mumbai-based English newspaper Mid Day and the Gujarati paper Divya Bhaskar. His book Translating Saadat Hasan Manto’s non-fiction work will be published this year
aakar.patel@tribune.com.pk
The editor of Firstpost, R Jagannathan, was also on the show and he was asked which seat — Baroda or Varanasi (also known as Kashi) — Modi would pick if he won both.
Jagannathan said Modi would pick Varanasi. This was because of the symbolism, given Kashi’s position as the seat of Hinduism. The BJP has long engaged the city and the Gyanvapi mosque, built in Kashi over a temple demolished by Aurangzeb in 1669, keeps returning to the Hindutva agenda.
In representing Varanasi, Modi would also own the BJP’s revival in Uttar Pradesh. It has come in third or fourth in recent elections and this will be the first time since its Babri and post-Babri period that the BJP will win the state. As an MP from Varanasi, Modi will rightfully claim it is his victory.
This is all sound logic and it is quite likely that he will retain Varanasi and drop Baroda.
Both seats have been with the BJP since 1991 except for one defeat (1996 in Baroda and 2004 in Varanasi) each to the Congress.
However, there the similarities end.
Varanasi is a very fragmented constituency and its voting patterns are not predictable. Though the BJP has won it consistently, in 2009, Murli Manohar Joshi won the seat with only 30 per cent of the total vote. The margin he had was not even 20,000 votes.
This is not a safe seat in that sense.
On the other hand, Baroda regularly delivers 100,000 plus margins to the BJP and well over 50 per cent of the vote, no matter who the candidate is. The Congress dominated Baroda through the Gaekwad family, but even there, the BJP has made inroads. Modi took along one Gaekwad family member when he filed his nomination.
That is the reason Modi can make Baroda his pocket borough. In picking a seat, Modi will have to consider more than just the election at hand.
All South Asian dynasties have nurtured a place that will return them to the Parliament without difficulty. The Bhuttos have Larkana, the Gandhis have Amethi, Mujib and his family have Gopalganj, the Pawars have Baramati.
This, as Jagannathan observed on the show, takes away one major distraction for the PM candidate and he can invest his time elsewhere.
Modi famously has nobody to leave an inheritance to but even he needs a place he can contest without difficulty from. He is relatively young, and at 64 is likely to be around for not a few more elections.
The second aspect is that in keeping Baroda, there is a zone of influence which he can command. Meaning a block of Gujarati MPs, whose interests he will represent. This is unlike UP, which has its own caste and regional lobbies from which Modi is naturally excluded being an outsider.
At the moment this is not a problem because he has united the party under his leadership, but who can tell what the future will bring? Even the Gandhis and the Bhuttos felt the need to nurture a place and Varanasi cannot be that place for Modi.
Other than the obvious linguistic and regional connections, Modi has another reason to prefer Baroda. The city has a large and powerful Marathi population because Gujaratis were conquered by the Maratha generals who came after Shivaji.
Modi connects with the Baroda Marathis through his Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) links. His mentor, Madhukarrao Bhagwat (current RSS chief Mohanrao’s father), spent years in Baroda, building the Hindutva institution there.
Baroda is the second most communally violent city in India (after Ahmedabad) and the Marathi population is quite active in this violence, taking it further towards the BJP. Modi can keep the city for as long as he wants.
I would not be surprised therefore, if he chose, despite the obvious attractions of Banaras-Kashi, to retain Baroda.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 20th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (15)
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People know very well that many mosques were built after demolishing temples. Do Allah accepts prayers from such places ?
Let us accept your view that Modi wins from both seats, does it really make a difference which one he retains ? If he comes to Power he will have to make an impact not just on two seats but bring benefits to people in hundreds of constituencies, assuming he wants to return to Power. A wise guy will keep rotating his seat to increase his influence, he obviously can nurture every seat that at some time elected him.
ET Mods: All all of the below is factual. Why then was my comment censored? And for your information, I am not a Hindu.
@Author: The BJP has long engaged the city and the Gyanvapi mosque, built in Kashi over a temple demolished by Aurangzeb in 1669, keeps returning to the Hindutva agenda.
Your bias comes out in tiny but measurable ways. You do not refer to the name of the ancient Kashi Vishwanath temple, a structure which has a recorded history of being rebuilt in 1585, thereby diminishing the importance of a temple renowned through the ages (around 3500 years).
You are making Aurangzeb appear as someone who performed a serendipitous act when the fact is that Aurangzeb was a religious zealot who performed forced conversions and subjugation of people belonging to other faiths. In comparison, the Hindutvawadis who you keep harping about appear positively benign.
You also fail to mention that the temple and mosque are part of the same structure and both are used simultaneously by followers and that the name Gyanvapi refers to the ancient temple well that now belongs to the mosque.
@Mahesh Patil: Please understand my hidden message. There is no hidden message. The obvious message is that you seem to take great pride in misleading some poor pollster who is just trying to do his job, so congrats. Further, there was no positive swing based on Atal Behari Vajpayee's 'inclusive nature' or track record. The BJP vote share declined in each successive election under Vajpayee starting 1998 (in 1996 the campaign was led by Advani until he was accused in the Jain hawala scandal, and the agenda at that time was completely Hindutva). Pls don't cook up stories to justify your voting choices. BJP vote share: 1998 - 25.59 per cent; 1999 - 23.75 per cent; 2004 - 22.2 per cent
It has been predicted well beyond doubt that Mr.Mody will be next Prime Minister of India.I wish him great success.However I feel 5 to 7 percent of Indian voters who are not die hard supporters of any political party hold the ace in their hand.When Mr.Atal Bihari Vajpayee was Prime Ministerial candidate there was vote swing of 5-7% in his favour because his inclusive nature and I am proud to say I and family voted for BJP. Though I and my family voted not to BJP in this 2014 General Election,we proudly announced to representative of poll analyser that we voted for BJP. Please understand my hidden message.
The party may see benefit in Modi retaining Banaras from the larger halo effect on Purvanchal that he could cast; However, Banaras has problems that do not have quick-fix solutions - cleaning the Ganges, widening roads, establishing a modern sewage system etc require massive investment and state government cooperation; thus Modi will need to focus considerable attention on his constituency in case he wins, and returns may not be commensurate with his time invested. The UP state elections are 3 years away - so the euphoria of a Modi win in Banaras this May may have dissipated to some extent. Further, it is also true that Modi will remain an outsider to UP politics unlike Vajpayee, who had the benefit of a less dangerous seat (Lucknow too has a sizeable muslim population but the Shia component is very large and they very often vote differently from their Sunni brethren) and being a UP Brahmin (Gwalior is culturally more UP than MP), thus ensuring one of the largest chunks of votes after Muslims. I agree with Mr. Patel that this is a tough call.
Is it at all important to know which of the TWO seats Modi shall retain when the fact is that the incumbent PM neither had the confidence nor the courage to stand for elections and win a SINGLE seat?
So you agree he will win both.
@mahakaalchakra: CORRECTION
MODI will NOT resign Varanasi. This is what I wanted to say in my post above.
The poor Hindus see two types of Muslim aggression (1) Lying that no temple was demolished, so we wont allow a temple (2) Openly admitting a Hindu temple was demolished, still rejecting Hindu's claim to build temple.
With this obvious aggression, you and the muslim supremacist apologists rant and rave against Hindutva. No other people anywhere in the world have shown this much tolerance.
p.s I am not Marathi, the people of India, other ethnic groups in India owe tons of gratitude to our Marathi brothers, the real saviors of India.
Please provide us the information whether Indian youth is going to polling stations or they are watching cricket matches and movies at home like Imran supporters.
Since anyone from BJP would win from Baroda, as you say, Why would Modi give up the hard won Varanasi seat which someone else from the BJP might lose in the By election?? He would keep the Varanasi and resight from Baroda which the BJP will win anyway. You are contradicting yourself.
Or perhaps you are just repeating the congress propaganda in the hope that repeating it might make some sense
Aakar Ahmed first you predicted that Modi will not present himself as a candidate for the PM post and I said, he will.
Now you are predicting that he will resign from the Varanasi seat rather Baroda. I say he will resign Varanasi seat because he wants BJP to capture UP state and decimate the double danger of Maya-Mulayam in Indian politics as he has done to CONgress in Gujarat. He will at least demolish Mulayam. He will be in the horizons of Delhi for the next 15-20 years unless something untoward happens to him.
You cannot reach Delhi without safeguarding the road to regime passing through the Ganga belt in UP and Bihar.
We will know by June 2014.
Modi will retain Varanasi 100%. Modi has to personally lead UP, else he won't make it to PM-ship next time. BJP has to capture UP and Bihar at any cost and Modi's retaining Varanasi is must for that.
Akaar Ahmed, please note than Modi has not filed his nomination papers from Varanasi, not as yet. He will do this on April 24, 2014.