The writer is a doctoral researcher associated with the European Commission Erasmus Project
Of the earth’s total water availability, 97.5 per cent is saltwater, which leaves 2.5 per cent as freshwater available for consumption. But of this portion, 70 per cent is frozen in ice caps while 29 per cent lies underground as soil moisture. That leaves us with a miniscule one per cent freshwater available for human consumption.
A water crisis is looming as potentially 75 per cent of the world’s population could face freshwater shortage by 2050, with global water shortages already threatening economic growth and geopolitical stability. The water crisis in South Asia in particular is gaining increasing attention, with major implications for stability in the region. It is inevitable that water is to become a likely source of conflict. The region’s three major rivers, the Indus, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra, sustain water supplies for China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, all of which fall into a region classified as water-stressed, as the population here increases at the rate of 25 million people a year.
India, as both an upper and lower riparian country, finds itself in dispute with downstream neighbours, Pakistan and Bangladesh, which accuse it of attempting to dominate water flows. India fears the same of upstream China, which plans extensive dam-building projects over the Tsangpo River that flows into eastern India. The construction of Baglihar Dam by India in the disputed Kashmir region has triggered fierce opposition from Pakistan, which sees it as an effort to threaten, withhold and divert its rightful share of water. The view is that the Baglihar Dam creates a reservoir on a river coming into Pakistan and enables Indian control over the headwaters of the Indus, making Pakistan water dependent. The cumulative effect of the Baglihar Dam and other similar projects could give India the ability to store enough water to limit the supply to Pakistan at crucial times during the monsoon season. Therefore, these dams remain a source of significant tension.
India dismisses these allegations, stating that such projects merely delay river flows and considers itself to abide by the Indus Water treaty of 1960. Adding to the tension, more dams are being planned as India grows more power hungry, given its economic growth. The Indian Rajya Sabha reports 33 hydro projects in the border area with over 60 dam projects planned. Pakistan being downstream, is vulnerable as it is situated around a single great river, the Indus, which waters over 80 per cent of Pakistan’s irrigated land that serves 180 million people.
More political row is certain in the future as both nations become water scarce and desperate for water access. India may keep dismissing Pakistan’s concerns given that it is geographically situated upstream, however, it faces its own downstream concerns given its border with China.
Water shortage will become harder to manage as the region’s population grows by 1.7 per cent yearly, creating more demand for food and causing further climate change. The effects of this can be seen already as weak river flows in several South Asian rivers are unable to subside waste. These river waters are becoming increasingly unsafe for drinking, cleaning and cropping, while encouraging parasitic diseases like Naegleria and deadly viruses such as dengue. Water tables are dropping and this is evident as the areas around the Ganges and the delta of the Indus in Pakistan are becoming semi-deserts. This results in more pumping of groundwater, which increases cases of arsenic poisoning.
The growing water shortage can be dealt with by governments collaborating to improve water management systems rather than sprinting to build dams and divert waters. As South Asia becomes increasingly water scarce, the potential for conflict will loom unless urgency and willingness is shown by governments to create multilateral arrangements and practices on inter-basin water sharing. Organisations such as the United Nations Water Agency and Saarc have a major role in promoting this agenda. Diplomatic dialogue and political cooperation is the only way forward in the hope of finding solutions.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 22nd, 2014.
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COMMENTS (20)
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@mind control: What delusions?
You quoted Mr. Naqvi right. Mr. Naqvi focus of attention was of certain section Pak who thinks that a better deal than present can be achieved in post Nehru India. (well, THAT Section always think that everything was imperfect but they just talk n do less)
I am off the view that the current treaty is fine if practice it with fairness n efficiency.
Pak needs to understand the point that India wants to tweak the treaty to her advantage, Pak just needs put her house together and keep a vary eye on every upcoming project of India on Western rivers, that is it. what is delusion about that?
regards,
The main point is that fuelling fire doesn’t resolve such disputes. One has to be just and transparent. India and Pakistan lose benefits of nature’s gift i.e. Indus Waters by fire fuelling jingoism. This xenophobia will lead us to lose benefit from our shared river waters for generations. The residents on both sides understand that water conflict hurt them directly so they have much higher interests and stakes in 'Peace'. For them 'Optimum Utilization of Waters of Indus Basin' is directly proportionate to their economic prosperity. It is inhuman to ignore importance of Storage Dams to fully utilize waters of Indus for power generation, flood control, irrigation, drinking and commercial industrial uses. Article VII of IWT deals with:
a) establishment of Hydrologic and Meteorological observation stations; b) Drainage and engineering works on rivers; and c) Supply of data, as may be available, to other party.
In last 65 years Pakistan has harped upon only at c) above and did not indulge in any cooperation and cost of a) and b). The writer is correct; it is desirable that we should also take up issues referred at a) and b) above under IWT.
Even today over 5 maf to 11 maf of Ravi, Beas and Satluj water flows into Pakistan as per GoP’s own documents. We both can build barbed wires along Indo Pak border, but can't build dams all along the border. Between 8 maf to 92 maf of Indus water flows in sea every year in Pakistan in the absence of dams. The Indus Water flowing in sea is even many times more than what Pakistan receives from India. This is because it also includes precipitation in Pak territory.
I give only one example - My Pak brothers will be horrified that even today Chenab’s annual flows at Baglihar Dam site alone is 25,000 mcm against Pakistan’s 'Pondage' or live storage demand of only around 6.22 mcm. Which is not even a fraction of the total flow of water? Indian designed storage is 37 mcm which is less than 3 days total flow and only 30% of it flows through turbines. Poundage, for which hue and cry is made is just 0.13% of the annual flows. Even 100 dams shall not pond even 1% of such waters.
Similar was the case of Kishanganga where CoA at Hague accepted India’s right to divert waters of western rivers, in a non-consumptive manner, for optimal generation of power. It gave go ahead to India for construction of the Kishanganga dam. The "final award" also specified that 9 cumecs of natural flow of water must be maintained in Kishanganga river. This was considered necessary at all times for maintenance of environment downstream. India was agreeable to provide 5 cumecs and Pakistan’s demand was 100 cumecs without any basis.
There is sufficient inflow in these rivers for barrages in Pakistan to provide continuous flow in canals. One more fact missed is that overflows to Pakistan even today are colossal and causing flooding every year.
India has never been in violation of the Indus water treaty is the judgement delivered by International arbitrators, whenever Pakistan raised disputes. However raising non existent water disputes has proved a very profitable strategy for hate mongers opposing normalization of relations with India. When population keeps increasing the need for water increases, not decreases. This calls for better water management, not wailing. Pakistans propensity for blaming external sources for all its self created problems must stop, if it ever wishes to offer a better tomorrow to its citizens. Every problem is solvable with resolve and commitment, not by obfuscation and diversion.
India has constructed over 3500 dams since independence, over 500 are in various stages of completion. how many has pakistan constructed ? Do not blame us for your incompetence and stupidity. Keep on crying and not doing anything to remedy the situation in your country.
@Bala: " Not happy with Indus water treaty ? Pakistan can walk away from the treaty any day it wants." ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ And Pakistan will refund the huge amounts of monies it received from India as compensation?
It looks like Pak is setting a future case for playing victim of water shortage.ask yourself a simple question how many dams,holding ponds has pak built since 1947? Iodex maliye Kaam Pe chaliye. ET Publish
why not they built any Dam in their country?
Pakistan's water resources are the same as they were 65 years back - but the population has increased to a far higher level. Growing food for this higher population will obviously put a strain on water resources. I have read at quite a few places that Pakistan's population is likely to touch 300 million in the next few decades. It doesn't matter what India does - Indus water flow isn't going to increase and you will have a serious water problem. Obviously, it is easier to blame India for 'stealing our water' than do something meaningful on the population front. Sadly, I fear that the rising water shortage will lead to more strife/terrorism.
@Bala: First, What made you think that if Pakistan walk away from the treaty then only India get the full advantage or lion share? maybe the new treaty is even more severe to India or to both. Deep down in India & Pak both knows that.
Second, The said treaty is negotiated by the WB cuz both Nations have difference of opinion on the river basin system.
Third, Pakistan did not cry foul for no reason. The detailed verdicts on Kishanganga & Baghlihar both accepted Pak point of view, one way or the other, more in one, less in some.
Fourth, Bangladesh, India's most trusted neighbor is in extreme difficulty due to India attitude towards river management and very much concern due to the India upcoming River Interlinking Project.
Fifth, The easiest & yet the toughest is to Co-operate with one another on natural issues like environment, health, water instead of focusing on cricket, singers, dancers bla bla, the former has a potential to build everlasting confidence which paves the way of just peace while the latter is just a good time pass or hooliganism. Trust me.
regards,
The author chooses to ignore the inconvenient fact that ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Pakistan has worst possible water management and most of the fresh water simply goes into oceans.But blaming India is always a worthwhile proposition than being self critical.
Pakistan needs to answer a simple question, How many dams,holding ponds , have you guys built since 1947? Start conserving ! there is enough water to go about for many years ! Rains feed most Himalayan rivers, all you need to do is conserve, Pakistan seems to be trying to build a future case for playing victim of water shortage.If anything ,Pakistan is in shortage of is a vision, not water. The only way for Pakistan to do something is when the alarms bells start ringing? ET dnt censor.