Landslide: Another disaster awaits G-B as cracks in Miacher slopes widen

According to expert, the slopes might give way by the end of February.

GILGIT: The threat of impending landslides in Miacher Valley of Gilgit-Baltistan is raising concerns as a landscape ecologist has warned that if slopes fail, a disaster 10 times the magnitude of the one that struck Attabad four years ago, is lying in wait.

Located about 70 kilometres from Gilgit, mountain slopes in Miacher Valley are laden with cracks that seem ready to give way. Failure of the slopes is expected to block the Hunza River, drowning many adjacent settlements in its wake.

“A landslide in Miacher has the potential to cause a mega disaster,” claims Mujahid Ali Shah, who studied landscape ecology at the University of Greifswald and is currently working as visiting faculty and researcher at the Department of Environmental Sciences at Karakoram International University, Gilgit.



Rapid widening of cracks on mountain slopes is leaving little time for authorities to take preventive measures as the danger grows imminent by the day. “Since October last year, landmass in the valley is showing unexpected signs of a possible disaster, with cracks having widened from nine inches to 12, in a period of six months,” Shah told The Express Tribune. “Towards the end of February, as temperatures in the bedding of mobilised debris increases to 4 degrees Celsius, the slopes can be expected to fail,” he warned. If this happens, the landslide will create a damming wall 400 to 500 metres high and 200 metres wide out of a total of 1,000 to 2,000 million cubic metres of rock debris that will be displaced, according to Shah.

“The damming wall can stay for more than 18 months, choking the Hunza River and submerging not just 40 kilometres of the Karakoram Highway, but also areas of Sumyar, Asqurdas, Shayaron in Nagar Valley, and Hasanabad and Ganish in Hunza Valley across the river,” the ecologist said.

Shah said it would be wrong to assume that the story would end there. A possible outburst of Miacher lake, beyond the 18 month period may further form three lakes in the area of Zee Sar, by submerging the already sliding lands of Mayun and Khanabad.

“This could also cause flooding in the Hunza and Indus rivers, raising water levels by 20 to 35 metres and submerging downstream areas,” he added.

In order to avert the natural disaster, Shah suggested the authorities build a 470 to 500 metres long and 10,000 cubic metres deep tunnel in the Hunza River that will allow water to pass through and avoid formations of artificial lakes.

“Positive news emerging for now is that the government is busy in re-routing the way from Minapin to Khayadar and Miacher by constructing a four-kilometre-long road,” he said about his meeting with the assistant executive engineer for Public Works Department Hunza, Nagar Iqbal Hussain.

Meanwhile, the local administration has deployed police in the danger zone, to stop movement from the area. At least 25 families have been relocated to less disaster-prone areas, amid their cries for permanent settlements elsewhere.

Sajjadul Haq, the spokesman at the chief minister’s office, said that the issue has been taken up by the chief minister who has directed for a detailed report to be compiled on the matter.

Four years ago, Hunza Valley witnessed a disastrous landslide that also killed 20 people and sank hundreds of acres of land in lower Attabad. Landslide debris blocked the Hunza River, which led to the formation of a 20-kilometre-long and two-kilometre-wide lake that is now known as Attabad Lake.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 3^rd, 2014.