If economist O’Neill’s projections are correct, Pakistan’s economy would grow 15 times in the next 35 years or so. PHOTO: FILE
Pakistan would become the 18th largest economy in the world by 2050 with a GDP of US$ 3.33 trillion, predicted economist Jim O’Neill.
Currently, Pakistan is the 44th largest economy in the world with a GDP of US$ 225.14 billion. This means that, if O’Neill’s projections are correct, Pakistan’s economy would grow 15 times in the next 35 years or so.
Economist Jim O’Neill, who coined the term BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China - as potential powerhouses of the world economy, has now identified the ‘Mint’ countries - Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey - as emerging economic giants, according to BBC.
In terms of wealth, Mexico and Turkey are at about the same level, earning annually about $10,000 per head. This compares with $3,500 per head in Indonesia and $1,500 per head in Nigeria, which is on a par with India. They are a bit behind Russia - $14,000 per head - and Brazil on $11,300, but still a bit ahead of China - $6,000 (£3,600).
Published in The Express Tribune, January 20th, 2014.
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@Observer: I agree!
@Observer: I agree!
We the people of India and Pakistan must strive for smaller gap between the rich and the poor or these numbers don't mean any thing. If rich are getting richer and poor are getting poorer the per-capita income will still show a false picture of prosperity. that would be like telling all workers in TATA are making $5000 a month simply by dividing the owners' income by it's number of employees. No doubt Pakistan has few more but India has hundreds more billionaires in last ten years but that did not make a dent in lowering the poverty. The money that was made and invested in short term programs has disappeared in construction of empty office plazas, ports, factories, hotels etc. The key to survival in future is "Circulation of Money" i.e, is it in the safe or being circulated through all rich and poor. The country that has best money circulation Technic will be the true winner despite any international index.
Indians stop with the self praising and get a reality check, your GDP is the same as of nigeria despite a billion plus population
All of those Friends who are happy on Media Reports that if Played right Pakistan will become 18th Largest economy, however we need to look deep, as per last census our growth rate is roughly 3% by this rate our population will be 598 million where as our GDP in 2050 would be $3.3 Trillion and our Per Capita GDP would be $ 5,500 AND THIS IS SHARAMNAKK PROGRESS
@BruteForce:
Pakistan has a much larger undocumented economy than India, only 2% of Pakistanis pay taxes, so we don't know the exact size of the economy, some estimates say its 2 times the current size(at the least).
Where did you get your stats about Pakistani population in 2050?Pakistan is projected to have a population of 271 million by 2050(still 6th largest by then), so you were only off by 230 million!!!.
What's more important than GDP size or purchasing power, is per capita income, and India is just slightly ahead of Pakistan(only this past decade).
As far as climate change is concerned, it's going to affect the WHOLE world, not just Pakistan.
Only Sharia can save Pakistan
Pakistan should assume the rule of the GATEWAY to the economic giants like China, Russia and India. We need to focus on two things only:
1- Electricity generation (Cheap- Hydropower, wind, nuclear and solar power). Electricity will grow our local industries, 2- Building motorways and railways. Build strong National Airline!
We need to connect India with the Middle East. China, Russia and Central Asian countries to the Arabian Sea.
6th largest country in the world in terms of population today, 44th largest Economy.
In 2050, with a projected population of around 500 Million(!), the 3rd largest population in the world, Pakistan is projected to be only the 18th most largest economy. Which makes sense considering the GDP growth in the past decade.
India : 2 largest population, 9th largest Economy. 3rd in terms of PPP.
India in 2050 : Largest population in the world, 2nd or 3rd in Economy.
Pakistan simply does not have that many resources like India, like rivers for example, to sustain that great a population. The Indus Water System will start yielding much less water due to climate change, 20 years down the line.
I just hope that Pakistan will build dams and manages its water, because if it doesn't, it might blame India, even though the less water is due to climate change, and there might be a war, which might be catastrophic, since both powers are nuclear-weapon states.
@Stealth: Both are at same level around $ 1450
@Idol:
"Forget mention India which currently at 9, 3rd largest by 2028 and 1st by 2050."
The total size of GDP is misleading and meaningless. It is the per capita GDP that is the good indicator of economic progress and prosperity of the people of a country.
India and Pakistan are way behind the richer countries. For example, the per capita annual GDP of the US, China and India are $52,000, $9,000 and $3,800 respectively on a PPP basis.
So, you see, even China has a very long way to go before even approaching the national per capita prosperity of the advanced countries.
@Engineer: ready for last 66 years but the corrupt generals, bureaucrats and politicians are still not done destroying this country with their corruption and incompetence and are unwilling to give us our turn to turn tings around for this country
@Idol: Did you know about the farmers committing suicide in India ? The stories are rather sad. And you should stop reading the Indian government propaganda, lest you start believing in it also.
Will somebody post this report to U.S.congress who wants to withhold $ 33 mil. for a country having GDP $ 225 billion ( double it if you count unaccounted economy ) . What an affront ! And they wonder why nobody likes us in Pakistan,
A wonderful comment published this week, in the scientific journal Nature, highlights the inadequacy of using GDP as an indicator of growth. GDP will grow even faster if there is a natural disaster and subsequent rebuilding, as it did following Hurricane Sandy in the US. Similarly, it will also grow if a country is spending more money to curtail violence. GDP growth does not adequately represent better living standards or life satisfaction and is certainly amiss about income gap and inequality. For the complete discussion, please see the original article here: http://www.nature.com/news/development-time-to-leave-gdp-behind-1.14499
Can be number 1 if corruption stops, GUARANTEED.
If peace and law and order prevail in our country with a strict control over molvies, Mufties, I am confident that Pakistan would be the 18th largest before 2035 and will come to single digits like 8th or 9th largest economy in 2050 but if the above mention conditions are met.
Looks like most of us have not much hope in our lifetime.
@Hamza: U just said BRICS & MINT ended..claps for u:)lol by the Way China is slowing & India is going to be next economy& Investment powerhouse in next decades like china did from 2000 to 2010....!! China's peak has be achieved now they hav no young pop. No cheap labour like they enjoyed in past decades...But for India its Peak going to strt just after its 2014 election.. U should read growth rates of India china given by World bank( latest)..
@avi: then why visit this site and Comment? it's the height of hypocrisy.
To see prosperity Purchase price parity and GDP per capita is the relevant and important figures.
@Idol: This will only be possible if other countries are going at zero percent growth rate. Now the Indian economy has nosedived and the GDP growth is down below 4.5 percent.
Currently, Pakistan is the 44th largest economy in the world with a GDP of US$ 225.14 billion. GDP in purchasing power parity is about 540 billion USD for Pakistan which places it on 27th number in the world. Also there is lot of undocumented economy which can be 34-45 percent of the economy and the actual GDP figure might be much higher.
India and Nigeria at the same level in per capita income...thought India is ahead.
A great fiction circulated by those in power duly sponsored by them. Please do not degrade your paper by such items.
Obviously it would. Jis rate per humaray mashallah bachhay paida horahay hain, we are all set to cross 500 million by 2050 and by the end of the century, a billion people. It would not be because of actual economic development since there will not be much in the way of change in purchasing power parity and income levels. We are already facing chronic food shortages, our infrastructure is already lagging behind and we do not have enough housing either. Jobs toh dur ki baat hain! Truly, a nuclear bomb waiting to explode .. India say isi cheez per hee competition karsaktay hain lol.
Just cut down on population and everything rest will be fine and dandy
Very hard to believe we will be the 18th largest economy and the economic growth will multiply so many times
Looking at the current situation, we can struggling to fight polio. The education levels are in shambles and there is hardly any sign of employment for the mass population. Inflation is sky high. Poor are getting poorer and rich are getting richer
One thing is for sure, the Sharif family will become the richest in the world
The GDP will be 15 times larger than it is now but the per capita income will still be the same or maybe a negligible increase might occur. Pakistan is a potential investors hub but only if security is maintained, which is not. So by analyzing all of that, my hopes for this country are still down, sadly.
What is so amazing about it, we are the sixth largest country in terms of population .
@Faisal: @F: How right. We have heard this all before. The civilian so-called political leaders just do not seem to be coming to grasps with what is going on and what to do about it. All round confusion. Salams
Forget mention India which currently at 9, 3rd largest by 2028 and 1st by 2050.
Just 18th largest by 2050? Up from 44th largest. This is a very pathetic outlook of Pakistan's economy.
Good Luck to my country...we are ready to play our part for Pakistan's development
Must be due to increase in population growth rate because economy or law and order does not seem to be a government priority for now!
Let us hope the country survives till then.