Ten predictions about Pakistan

Published: November 3, 2012

The writer is a columnist. He is also a former editor of the Mumbai-based English newspaper Mid Day and the Gujarati paper Divya Bhaskar aakar.patel@tribune.com.pk

1) Pakistan’s population problem will not remain for long. Growth peaked at 3.4 per cent in 1982, but then wilted and is now at 1.8 per cent. India’s peaked at 2.3 per cent in 1977 and is today 1.4 per cent, but Pakistan’s rate of decline is sharper.

2) The rate of Pakistan’s GDP growth will not rise in this decade. It was about 2.5 per cent last year. One reason, the minor one, is that Pakistan has a problem of order that its army does not appear willing to solve.

3) The larger reason is that Pakistanis have a cultural barrier against saving money. Pakistanis save nine per cent of the GDP. Indians save over 30 per cent. I would say that this pattern of behaviour has to do with the caste of South Asia’s Muslims and certain aspects of religion. Low savings rate = low growth.

4) Pakistan will be left behind in South Asia in 25 years. In the five years between 2005 and 2011, Pakistan’s GDP per capita went from $2,150 to $2,420. India’s went from $2,200 to $3,200.

5) If this trend continues, and Pakistan continues to refuse free trade with India, India-Pakistan will look like South Korea-North Korea by 2037. A wealthy and powerful India will constantly worry about poor, unstable but nuclear-armed Pakistan.

6) There was no Malala Yousufzai moment. The consensus in Pakistan is against fighting the militants. Pakistan’s English columnists and writers will continue to remain on the wrong side of a consensus they do not entirely grasp. Why do I say this?

7) What the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and al Qaeda want in order for them to stop their war against the Pakistani state, is full-dress sharia. Essentially, they are demanding the implementation of Article 227 of Pakistan’s Constitution, which also assures Pakistanis sharia. The TTP and al Qaeda are on the right side of the law. I would say they are also on the right side of the consensus.

8) Anti-incumbency is felt in the state, not the centre. Unless Pakistan is very different from India, Punjabis fed up with governance will vote against Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N that has power in Punjab. This means that the PPP will again do well in southern Punjab and that someone, either Imran Khan or the PML-Q will do well in central Punjab.

9) Unless Imran Khan pulls out leaders from the PML-N, he will not be able to convert personal popularity into votes. He will lose again.

10) The United States will expand its theatre in Pakistan. Unmanned aircraft will spy on and carry out attacks in a wider area than they are doing currently. This expansion will not be affected by who wins the presidential elections in America next week.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 4th, 2012.

Reader Comments (106)

  • Logic
    Nov 3, 2012 - 10:02PM

    Sound less like predictions and more like stating the obvious.

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  • vikas
    Nov 3, 2012 - 10:06PM

    Mr Patel as always spot on.

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  • Lala Gee
    Nov 3, 2012 - 10:06PM

    I thought you were a reasonable person, but here your came out like a typical Indian suffering from Pakistan syndrome.

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  • Nov 3, 2012 - 10:09PM

    The only bit I .liked about all this was the dream that India will be rich and powerful – I will believe that when the poorest of the poor tribals can afford the same basic amenities that an urban middle class person can.

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  • Momin
    Nov 3, 2012 - 10:17PM

    ” Essentially, they are demanding the implementation of Article 227 of Pakistan’s Constitution, which also assures Pakistanis sharia. The TTP and al Qaeda are on the right side of the law”

    Then let us rid ourselves of 1973 constitution and make a new one – based on Jinnah’s August 11th speech and a secular Pakistan.

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  • Nov 3, 2012 - 10:30PM

    what was that ???????Recommend

  • Babloo
    Nov 3, 2012 - 10:32PM

    Looks like Pakistan ruling elite is working hard to fulfill Mr Patel’s predictions.

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  • Liberal
    Nov 3, 2012 - 10:33PM

    well i am afraid .. the way indian growth rate is declining .. in 2037 situation may go vice versa ..

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  • Nov 3, 2012 - 10:33PM

    he is not in touch with ground realities, the 2nd one was the most hilarious statement !!Recommend

  • Skeptic
    Nov 3, 2012 - 10:35PM

    Patel is failed in his effort to become an indian version of “Nostradamus”. Are you really sure the first seven points are “predictions”?. Go get a life mate , come up with better reasoning and stats next time to justify the title of your article.

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  • J
    Nov 3, 2012 - 10:38PM

    Captain Obvious saves the day!

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  • Majid Urrehman
    Nov 3, 2012 - 10:46PM

    Very refreshing. Looked like as if a Pakistani is making the predictions. Being a Nawaz supporter I do not agree to you on some points. Nawaz Sharif gave the idea of regional trade and consequently built Asia’s best road two decades ago which India is thinking now!

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  • mirza
    Nov 3, 2012 - 10:48PM

    no one has seen future………nope …we dont noe anything….there’s a possibility that taliban might die….god plz….

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  • Bilal
    Nov 3, 2012 - 10:51PM

    Pakistani society is deeply polarized. Becoming more religious and unfortunately more intolerant to others beliefs. We need to shun extremism and give life and prosparity a chance. The only way I see that happening is via Imran khan who promises to streamline educational system and developing the country . The biggest problem our country faces today is our diverse religious beliefs and not understanding and shunning others. I believe army for good has said bye to politics but for how long?

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  • Nov 3, 2012 - 10:58PM

    But you left the million dollar question unanswered. who will call the shots with respect to foreign policy, defence and nuclear – would it be a civilian govt, fauj or worse some sort of quasi-TTP?JI/mullah alliance?

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  • inam
    Nov 3, 2012 - 11:00PM

    Its not about PAKISTAN, Its just one more Indian showing off himself.
    Rich and powerful India let see. Why these indian foregate about that still in 2012 girls been burnt and killed by their parents as young as 6 months and 1 years bc they are just girls, people dying of hunger, girls trade is open and in all part of india only In goa you can buy a as young as 11 year old girl for 4-5 dollars.One of the most corrupt country

    Well these are just just few example about(rich and powerful) india……..wake up MR Patel…..
    dont just look Pakistan’s problems, the problem Pakistan is Facing last 40 years any other country in the world would have long gone from the Map of the world.

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  • Utkarsh
    Nov 3, 2012 - 11:03PM

    One of the reasons I come to Tribune and other Pakistani newspaper websites is that whenever i feel depressed and cynical about the present socio-economic condition and future trajectory of India, reading about the situation in Pakistan makes me feel slightly better.

    It’s petty, yes, but we all have our whims. This article suits mine perfectly.

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  • d
    Nov 3, 2012 - 11:40PM

    In ref. to Point [6] & [7]:
    In article 9 under Fundamental Rights where an individuals right to life and liberty is declared- and article 10A where an individuals right to due process is declared, these articles are examples of objects in our constitution that the taliban wish to distort by their contradictory actions, however article 227 under Islamic Provisions reiterates that all “existing laws” should be in accordance with islamic law; this stipulates to legislation alone.

    So our constitution does not infact set up Sharia as the authority under which the Freedoms & Liberties of all citizens are to be defined, instead it requires our legislation to be in accordance with islamic jurisprudence.

    I hope you understand what the taliban are really asking for, a revolt against our constitution i.e. ‘the wrong-side of the law’Recommend

  • Saleem
    Nov 3, 2012 - 11:45PM

    @inam: Two wrongs don’t make a right. Let us improve our home situation first before we point fingers towards India.

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  • Kaspar
    Nov 3, 2012 - 11:52PM

    Predicting the future is a tricky business, esp. in this part of the world. Some disguise their wishes as predictions. This writer has no arguments to back his claims. If wishes were horses, beggars would ride. It seems to be the case here.
    Some of the predictions, like referring to article 227 of the Constitution, are misinterpretations that display want of understanding.
    Having gone through a couple of articles by this writer, I wonder what makes the Tribune editors give space to him in their newspaper!

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  • vikas
    Nov 3, 2012 - 11:56PM

    @deep: at least our tribals don’t hear drones singing all day and can expect to live in a double digit GDP nation.
    @Utkarsh:
    It’s better to look at Pakstani websites than mirror sometimes.

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  • thor
    Nov 3, 2012 - 11:59PM

    Maulana abdul kalam azad part 2
    If this trend continues, and Pakistan continues to refuse free trade with India, India-Pakistan will look like South Korea-North Korea by 2037.
    The solution
    Oppa gangnam style..

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  • gp65
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:01AM

    @inam: There is no gainsaying that India does have big problems today – of hunger/malnutrition, open defecation and definitely son preference which leads to female foeticide. There is recognition and discussion of these issues in the parliament and media to attempt to find solutions. By the way prostitution is a global phenomenon not restricted to India. In case you think Pakistan is an exception you are sadly mistaken. But the thing in Mr. Patel’s ‘predictions’ that should worry Pakistanis most is:

    “What the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and al Qaeda want in order for them to stop their war against the Pakistani state, is full-dress sharia. Essentially, they are demanding the implementation of Article 227 of Pakistan’s Constitution, which also assures Pakistanis sharia. The TTP and al Qaeda are on the right side of the law. I would say they are also on the right side of the consensus.”

    The quickening pace at which Talibanization is progressing in your country has significant consequences domestically and internationally.

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  • d
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:02AM

    [cont.]
    note the Islamic Provision came way after the constitution was formedRecommend

  • fahad
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:03AM

    @Utkarsh
    The only reason i visit timesofindia, is reassure myself that india’s socio economic condition is worse than ours, trust me on poverty rates. I still wonder why ET publishes Indian writers dissing Pakistan.

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  • Falcon
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:08AM

    @Utkarsh:
    So, you need people in pain like us Pakistanis to feel good about yourself? Good going!

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  • Adnan
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:17AM

    Dream on.

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  • Rahul
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:24AM

    @inam: l agree that India has a lot of problems like you listed, considering our size and diversity I am certain we will continue to have similar issues for a long long time.

    But you should understand one thing about India, the constitution and the justice system are in no way supporting or protecting this kind of behaviour, no criminal will ever be welcomed to court with rose petals, that is the difference you may need to fathom.

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  • Maverick
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:32AM

    Mr Patel: why not make predictions about your own poverty-stricken, morally and financially bankrupt, corrupt, hypocritical, backward, decrepit, racist, caste-riven country? Too scary to contemplate?

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  • a_writer
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:39AM

    Prediction 3 ” Low savings = low growth” is somewhat simplistic. This is true only to a certain extent. A country’s economy can be brought to its knees if the savings increase too much. A healthy economy needs a healthy level of domestic production AND a healthy level of domestic consumption of those produced items.

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  • What the......?
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:41AM

    Wishful thinking from another Pakistan-hater. Why does the ET provide a platform for this mindless negativism disguised as foreign journalism?

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  • Zalim singh
    Nov 4, 2012 - 1:58AM

    fancy

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  • Saad BP
    Nov 4, 2012 - 2:18AM

    After reading this article, I gave up my Pakistani nationality, applied for asylum in India and told my family to stock food and water for the days to come. Btw, every other Indian is obsessed with Pakistan, but Pakistan is India Centric. However, this article also shows the changing mindset in India, every one predicted Pakistan breaking up until last year.Recommend

  • A Sood
    Nov 4, 2012 - 2:24AM

    @Utkarsh
    Three years ago I went to Shanghai for a engineering conference and seeing the Chinese miracle in real life was depressing. For us there is an easy temptation to compare ourselves with Pakistanis to feel better. This is very dangerous and we need to avoid this. We are WAY WAY WAY behind the Chinese and we need to open our eyes to this FACT just like the Pakistanis need to.

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  • Taimoor
    Nov 4, 2012 - 5:45AM

    India will encounter the same perhaps even worse problems than china is. The fact is the size of the population in India is way too high. And is growing at an extremely fast rate. 40-50% poverty rate means 3 times the population of pakistan is under that line. Its not a diss against India its just facts no country has been ever encounter these numbers before and have been able to maintain such a growth rate. China has begun to see a wall in its growth.

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  • Dipak
    Nov 4, 2012 - 6:13AM

    Aakar, after a long while you make a sense.

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  • mahakaalchakra
    Nov 4, 2012 - 6:16AM

    Prediction # 1 is difficult to achieve. Pakistan’s population is around 200 Million.

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  • Kumail
    Nov 4, 2012 - 6:21AM

    Don’t you have over 500 million people below the poverty line which should worry about instead of making predictions on Pakistan’s future?.

    “lower savings = lower GDP”, lol everyone knows that the more people spend/consume the more the economy grows and that savings is not “directly” related to growth. The whole world is not as “kanjoos” as India!.

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  • C. Nandkishore
    Nov 4, 2012 - 7:48AM

    I agree more with Dr Farrukh Saleem in his column today.

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  • Sidewinder
    Nov 4, 2012 - 9:37AM

    difference between India and Pakistan vis a vis their unending list of problems is mainly one….while Indians acknowledge the presence of problems and are working out the solution,Pakistanis most often than not behave as if there is none…..

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  • Jewcifer
    Nov 4, 2012 - 9:49AM

    Indian subversion at its best.

    According to them Pakistan is a failed states since half century. Nice try.

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  • Qasim
    Nov 4, 2012 - 9:49AM

    Reality check!Recommend

  • Hasan Shehzazd
    Nov 4, 2012 - 10:32AM

    hateful and biased predictions.that can be the hope of the writer but cant be the reality by the grace of ALLAH.Pakistan has to rise again with the rest of the islamic world as well…worst era has to be passed very soon..nothing to be disappointed.

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  • Bhangi
    Nov 4, 2012 - 10:42AM

    Hmm… Didn’t know they also outsourced Nostradamus to India.

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  • Nov 4, 2012 - 11:14AM

    @Lala Gee:
    i fully agree .

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  • Zeeshan
    Nov 4, 2012 - 11:16AM

    “The larger reason is that Pakistanis have a cultural barrier against saving money. Pakistanis save nine per cent of the GDP. Indians save over 30 per cent.Recommend

  • zoro
    Nov 4, 2012 - 11:18AM

    With elites of pakistan … India does not need to wage a war against pakistan… Just support the elites ..to be in power … hows that for a conspiracy theory ???
    Food for thought ??

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  • Singh
    Nov 4, 2012 - 11:35AM

    opa gangnum style its true ,, its not prediction we all know … think india would be generous enough to provide you all with soft loans to feed (pakistan ) people…

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  • Aijaz Haider
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:06PM

    Anybody’s guess!

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  • badnoc
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:44PM

    I think Mr. Patel has forgotten that India’s homeless population is a staggering 320 million people which is twice the number of Pakistan’s population. Reportedly, the so called middle-class in India are enjoying better life is only a farce, the reality is far from different. Because, according to Mr. Patel its due to the so called higher savings rate than Pakistan’s which he says is 9:30 ratio of the GDP savings. It is obvious that even the poorest of the poor in Pakistani stll eats and live better than a lot of homeless Indians. Because they spend money and not save it. Come and see for yourself Mr. Patel because, I have been to all major cities of India and a few villages too and I have seen their poverty level, and its even worst when you compare it with the villages of Pakistan’s. So, I guess predictions are predictions and miracles seldom happen. Despite all the political unrest and the chaos in the tribal area, Pakistan is still much better than India in reality. On paper, YES India is huge, they have a huge budget and big industries and one of the fastest growing economies in South Asia but, the fact remains that they have the biggest homeless population in the world. It does not end here, this HL population is growing at a very fast rate because, there is no family planning for these homeless people. So, please keep that in mind that in the next 50 years India will not be able handle their growth rate vis a vis their population explosion.

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  • rajput
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:44PM

    @deep: It says 2037 AD, tht a huge time for things to improve and become better in India. Look at Gujarat were agri growth is 10%, Tribals r looked after by d govt, infrastructure is best in entire nation. Why cant the same be done in Entire India.

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  • sabi
    Nov 4, 2012 - 12:58PM

    I have a strong feeling that Pakistan has a very bright future and right wings very very bleak.
    The reason behind my feeling is, if this land of saints and sufis can tollerate every kind of beasts on it,it knows also how to retaliate,This land has seen enough tyrany and humilation and remained silent for long time.But this doesn’t mean it has forgotten all the blood that is shed on it.This land of five rivers will pay it’s qarz with full might back to those who ruined it.
    There are still plenty of able people in Pakistan who can make it a great country without harming realations with all it’s neighbours.Let me make– eleventh prediction, Bloodshed in near future promising brighter prosperous Pakistan.

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  • Zeeshan
    Nov 4, 2012 - 1:35PM

    “The larger reason is that Pakistanis have a cultural barrier against saving money. Pakistanis save nine per cent of the GDP. Indians save over 30 per cent. I would say that this pattern of behaviour has to do with the caste of South Asia’s Muslims and certain aspects of religion. Low savings rate = low growth.”

    Why are you Indians always pretend to be experts of “Muslim culture”? Which culture were you Indians following when Pakistan had the highest saving rates among all South Asian nations from 1978 to 1992? Saving rate is dependent on marco and micro level economics. Stop projecting your Indian hatred toward Muslims through the supposed concept of “Muslim culture”.

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  • PK
    Nov 4, 2012 - 2:00PM

    I don’t think people have understood Aakar’s point about saving rates. There is a direct relationaship between higher growth rates and saving rates. So if Pakistan has to grow fast then saving rates have to up. People who comment on poverty levels in India and ignore that in Pakistan are not right in their assessment. While number of poor in India are higher due to larger population, percentage of poor in Pakistan is higher and it is a silly argument to compare destitutes in both countries which translate to say that “my destitutes and poor are better than your destitutes!”.

    Also predicting for 25 years is impossible and I would ignore Aakar’s predictions.

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  • abhi
    Nov 4, 2012 - 2:31PM

    I think these predictions are not correct.
    I think the biggest challenge of pakistan is population growth. and no one is really talking about it. Saying that it is declining is just hogwash. There is big opposition from mullah brigade on family planning and women empowerment, so there will be no decline population growth in future as well. You can take simple example even popular entities like Shahid Afridi and Hina Rabani have more than 2 kids.

    On point 2-3 and 4 I think author is wrong again the GDP growth will increase. Achieving around 5% GDP growth is not difficult for any developing economy. However this may not be sufficient as population growth will undo most of the positive effects of economic growth.

    On point 5, the difference may increase but by no chance India will become as prosperous as South Korea and also Pakistan will not become North Korea in next 15 years. Things will be more or less same.

    There could be some positives for Pakistan. Hopefully the Islamic fundamentalism will be down due to global factors and this will give some room for liberals in paksitan to correct the course.Recommend

  • abhi
    Nov 4, 2012 - 2:39PM

    @Zeeshan

    Nice catch, author doesn’t do very sound research, it is obvious from most of his columns. But somehow Paksitanis are happy when he writes bad about India.

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  • Rizwan Khan
    Nov 4, 2012 - 2:53PM

    Prediction and Political Science dont gel well.
    So many variables are at play, that its difficult to predict whats coming. in 2004 elections swayed by slogans like “Shining India” nobody expected the fall of Vajpaee led BJP rule.

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  • mirza
    Nov 4, 2012 - 3:39PM

    I don’t agree with this article, biased. Pakistan is just going through a bad patch and it happens with other economies too. These above stats are baseless. Saving doesn’t lead to economic growth, it’s spending. You can’t compare us with India. I assure you’ll see a strong pakistan in a decade as a guy like me is already planning to revolutionize steel and petrochemical industry which I hope will make us compete with india and other economies.

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  • The Quaid
    Nov 4, 2012 - 4:30PM

    Keep making castles in the air my friends. Pakistan is here to stay. Recommend

  • David_Smith
    Nov 4, 2012 - 4:42PM

    @Kumail: and the Chinese are even bigger “kanjoos” than the Indians, their savings rate is around 40%! No wonder they grow at 10% per annum.

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  • M
    Nov 4, 2012 - 4:43PM

    All Indians need to seriously get a life. So sad.Recommend

  • Nov 4, 2012 - 4:44PM

    All 10 predictions are fictitious. Real prediction is that after we solve the problem of power shortage, IP pipeline is built, US quits Afghanistan in 2014 then Pakistan will overtake other South Asian countries in every economic and social level.

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  • Sultan
    Nov 4, 2012 - 4:59PM

    @David_Smith:

    US has an almost zero savings rate. Still seems to outsourcing a lot of jobs snatched from the Americans to india despite that, no Mr. Clairvoyant?

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  • Kumail
    Nov 4, 2012 - 5:49PM

    @David_Smith:

    Their per capita income is much higher than indians which is why they can spend more and save more. Their economy(GDP) is largely dependant on exports which is why still the 10% growth, I guess that puts your savings myth to rest.

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  • Mia
    Nov 4, 2012 - 5:52PM

    While, most of the predictions are pretty much raising the finger up to see which way the wind blows… conventional thinking. However, reason 6 speaks volumes of the social divide that contributes to and exasberates the social, cultural and economic problems that plague Paksitan. This BTW, also ties in to the reason Imran Khan may not be able to win the popular vote.

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  • Aslam
    Nov 4, 2012 - 6:05PM

    “A wealthy and powerful India”
    Is it not a joke??
    Where people are dieing of hunger,
    forced to stay on footpaths,
    more than 40 per cent without toilets,
    states like Assam have not writ of government,
    More than 8 lakh Indian army is sitting in Kashmir to crush the innocent Kashmirs including women and children.
    where Muslims are being sidelined either it is the matter of getting jobs or politics,
    where Indian government split the Muslim majority population areas with Hindu majority population areas in elections to halt them to come into power,
    where corruption is on its peak,
    where suicide rate is much high than Pakistan, and many more thing i can tell you sir.
    is it a powerful India???
    I think writer is talking about the billionares in India, yes, rich are getting richest and poor are getting into worst situation. Indian media is just focus on Bollywood and IPL. They are ignoring the real issue and hiding truths. Most of the Indian villages still not have electricity in 2012. Capital Delhi is facing severe shortage of water, loadshedding is 4/5 hour average in the main cities.

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  • fedup
    Nov 4, 2012 - 6:13PM

    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

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  • human
    Nov 4, 2012 - 6:33PM

    Prediting about unpredictibles, good that someone replaced Pir Pagara. Look at prediction 7, TTP is on the right side of the law, do you have any idea what TTP and Al Qaeda doing ?. Don’t worry, you are not the only one suffered from this syndrome.

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  • rahul
    Nov 4, 2012 - 6:38PM

    Mr Patel has missed a very important point . That is Pakistan heavily depends on US,IMF, World Bank and Gulf countries to runs its country. It does NOT have any industries which leave alone profitable, non sustaining. So to all my Pakistani friends who are stating India’s problem, atleast we are trying to solve the problem on our own feet. We are not BEGGING to anybody.
    The solve reason why world calls Pakistani state as failed is because, they cannot solve problems on their own without begging. India is solving problem by our feet. That is why world recognizes that and Invest in India.

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  • Pir Bulleh Shah
    Nov 4, 2012 - 7:05PM

    Pakistan is the miracle of Allah. Mr Patel’s jealousy can’t stop this miracle from shining all across the world as the beacon of hope for all Muslims.

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  • amanat
    Nov 4, 2012 - 7:17PM

    I do’nt think these predictions will hold good in future.. It all depends upon the future government to be formed after coming elections. If sincere . honest and capable persons get an opportunity to form the next government it is possible to increase the economic growth at an accelerated rate. Similarly,if corruption in the country is eradicated Pakistan will definitely make rapid progress. If the energy crisis is solved doestic production will increase and simultaneously exports will also increase. Law and order situation also needs to be improved in the country. The predictions will not hold good under these circumstances.

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  • Aslam
    Nov 4, 2012 - 7:22PM

    It is not fair, ET not published my comment.

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  • Truth Detector
    Nov 4, 2012 - 7:24PM

    I always thought Patel was a reasonable & unbiased commentator. Apparently, that was a myth that has been effectively busted. I was dead wrong. He has joined millions ( mind you, not all) of Indians who love to live in ‘Bollywood-fantasy’ & daydream about Pakistan becoming a failed state or disappearing from map.

    There is always a struggle between good intellect & prejudices/biases , later has won in this case. Alas.

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  • Raza Khan
    Nov 4, 2012 - 7:50PM

    Although a Pakistani but have to agree with your predictions! We ourselves are responsible of destroying us. Sad story.

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  • Aslam
    Nov 4, 2012 - 8:27PM

    @Mr. Writer, Our religion does not allow us to save money and not spend on ourselves or the others or poor and needy. It forbids us from overspendings. Due to money people are committing suicides in India.

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  • Nov 4, 2012 - 9:02PM

    This article by Mr.Patel is less about forecast and more about wishful thinking.

    In spite of all its problems, Pakistan has continued to offer much greater upward economic and social mobility to its citizens than neighboring India over the last two decades. Since 1990, Pakistan’s middle class had expanded by 36.5% and India’s by only 12.8%, according to an ADB report titled “Asia’s Emerging Middle Class: Past, Present And Future.

    http://www.riazhaq.com/2012/08/upwardly-mobile-pakistan-on-66th.html

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  • Python
    Nov 4, 2012 - 10:51PM

    @badnoc

    There is no point in bring those numbers.
    The article just says that India is rising and it will continue to rise and India will become the TOP 3 economy by 2030 is simply a fact.
    No need to bring poverty numbers or homeless people because that simply doesn’t matter here.

    Consider this:
    India’s GDP in

    2002 : $500 billion
    2007 : $1 trillion
    2013 : $2 trillion

    India’s economy has quadrupled in 10 years!
    This will continue to happen so you can estimate the net gdp by 2030.Pakistan will be nowhere near and India will be in Top 3 position with the US & China.

    Mr. Patel simply wanted to say that if the present imbalance persists then the divide between India and Pakistan will become that of South Korea & North Korea.
    A FACT and no need to whine about it!

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  • nomi
    Nov 4, 2012 - 11:14PM

    @ Delusional Pakistanis

    Every index from Human Development to Investment is on a decline in Pakistan.

    Many of our friends consider Pakistan a safe haven for some very dangerous people.

    India – no matter how much we may dislike her has maintained economic growth. That country is so big and diverse that keeping it together is a success indeed.

    While we are still bickering on the system of democracy vs dictatorship, people have gone far ahead.

    The author has put it mildly, but a true analyst would predict a horrific future.

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  • Ajay
    Nov 5, 2012 - 12:06AM

    @Lala Gee:
    India’s known problems will vanish the moment corruption is tackled. and you can see 3 or more anti corruption moments taking off. Indians are able to do this because its society is not divided by sects, religions or languages. It is united in its diversity, hence there is hope of achieving change in India. That is not the case in Pakistan.

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  • Khuram
    Nov 5, 2012 - 12:44AM

    India need GAS via iran or tajikistan and without Freindly Pakistan it is impossible.

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  • hassan
    Nov 5, 2012 - 1:11AM

    eye opening and terrifying!!

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  • Wake Up
    Nov 5, 2012 - 2:04AM

    Im Indian and I think the author should either stick to figures about pakistan or India, trying to compare them is pointless. There will be enough chest thumping so called patriots trying to get one up on their counterparts. There are numerous reports comparing various economic and social metrics. Many of which show India is doing better in certain aspects and many that Pakistan is doing better in other aspects. I dont want to get into who is doing better overall cause it doesnt change the ground reallities of the problems faced by the people. The so called laptop warriors from both sides are part of the privileged elite who are not facing most of the problems of the common man.

    Get real and lets try to help our countries in whatever way we can. Trying to pretend that your better than someone who isnt doing that great either just shows how shallow and visionless you are. India and Pakistan should be striving to become like the other econimically developed and socially tolerant nations of the world. This doesnt mean losing ones identity but learning from the strengths and examples set by other nations.

    Reading the comments on this forum just makes me wonder how petty people are that they take pleasure in the failure of someone else.

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  • dawood
    Nov 5, 2012 - 7:57AM

    these are not the predictions… this is simply the wish list of common Indians… one thing what can i say about the most commented Taliban and the 9:30 saving rate is that we people believe in charity i.e. the money left after spending is given as charity (big example: 2005 & 2010 earthquake) that is why the people of the war theater (what the foreign media says about tribal area) are having the least rate of malnutrition in pakistan

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  • badnoc
    Nov 5, 2012 - 7:59AM

    @Rahul: This is in response to Rahul’s comment of Nov 4, 2012 – 12:24AM

    Rahul you have a very SELECTIVE MEMORY must I say? Do you remember BANDIT QUEEN the dacoit? I mean PHOOLAN DEVI? She was charged not for ONE MURDER but 22, and do you also remember what happened? After serving Jail sentence she became a member of the Parliament of India and she was elected for the second time i.e., when she was assassinated by a so called Rajput. How many ROSE PETALS were showered on her and how many times? The whole of India was so obsessed with her that they even made a movie which was super hit.

    So now please tell me who is going to fathom the difference and how? And, which culture are you talking about? We are all the same, its just that some of the Indians act like Big Brothers of Pakistan. aNo, you are not.

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  • Amir
    Nov 5, 2012 - 10:51AM

    We know only one thing, Allah is the protector of this country. It gets carved out from plannet with no resources. Allhamdulliah we survived and we will inshallah.

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  • Enlightened
    Nov 5, 2012 - 11:00AM

    Though I do not fully agree with the predictions made by the writer but he is spot on majority of them. Some of the negatives can be reversed into positives if some drastic measures are taken against terrorism, sectarian violence and simultaneously focusing on economy of the country but that can only be achieved if the major state institutions come together leaving aside their own agendas and work for betterment of the country. Though such a probability appears to be a distant dream but not impossible if Pakistan is lead by a dynamic leader with a vision and an Army Chief who can put aside the ego and superiority complex of the institution and put the interests of the country first and foremost. However, many sacrifices have to be made by all before Pakistan is put back on rails.

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  • Moe
    Nov 5, 2012 - 3:33PM

    The writer does not fully grasp Article 227 of the Constitution. Also, the article should be re-titled to random thoughts on Pakistan. Its is not really predictive, more projective based on current trends.

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  • Naina
    Nov 5, 2012 - 4:39PM

    Mere predictions! Face the reality, switch off ur TV cuz India’s better picture is limited to the screen

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  • Sharjeel Masood Khan
    Nov 5, 2012 - 5:11PM

    I can only call these views as Tunnel Vision. The writer is either expressing wishful thinking or may be devoid of future happenings in the region, Point 5 onwards show just that. Or may be cause Indians are not going to get what they want from new future scenario because of Pakistan, I will call it cursing of the desperate. LOLS…. On a serious note Indians Must Vacate Kashmir if they want any thing from Future AFPAK and Central Asian scene and show some respect for our sovereignty, Please Dont behave like Yankee Masters, Our Army,even if they would want to, cant Play for Indian Interests, Our people will kill them.

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  • not impressed
    Nov 5, 2012 - 6:57PM

    who is this person handing out his predictions for our country? do we write about India like this? I can also sit here and predict about the hindu fascists taking over the great motherland.

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  • Sultan
    Nov 5, 2012 - 9:30PM

    @nomi:

    Really? In the 60′s, Pakistan was termed the Asian Tiger–look at old editions of Time Magazine from the decade and you will know what I am saying. This is when india was a quasi communist state, drowning under the weight of “five year plans.” In 1989, under Rajiv Gandhi, india almost went bankrupt!! I still remember Kuldip Nayyar coming to visit Lahore in the 80′s and then writing glowig reviews of progress in Pakistan–he could not believe the houses people lived in in Lahore, the free flowing food, and was ecstatic to have driven European and Japanese cars, as if they were manna from heaven. All this hoopla, as always is, was mostly linear projections of idiotic minds.

    Fast forward to now: the Economist calls Pakistan “The most dangerous place on this planet,” our papers are full of gloom and doom and gloating indians, high on money earned from stolen jobs in the West thanks to “liberal” Republican policies, are having a field day spitting more drive, singing self congratulatory tunes full of pifflel! Just like before, these Malthusian projections are going to end up where they righfully belong–in the dustbin!

    Given the shrinking economies in the West, india will find it more and more difficult to get the “off shore” jobs it mostly relied on for grwoth, its politics will become more polarized, religious fissures that were papered over by free flowing money now absent will grow wider, water and fuel shortages will take their toll and india will find itself back to where it started in 1990s. indian growth has failed to trickle down to the 80% of have nots and their fury will have no mercy. Just watch the decay unfold as the years roll by.

    If there is one constant in life, it is that things will change.

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  • Abid
    Nov 5, 2012 - 11:33PM

    You’re certainly on the ‘right side’ of bias and prejudice, mate. Oh and by the way your vision of 2037 sounds as hollow as my claims of ruling half this world would. I don’t expect things to improve here in Pak but you’re not living in a perfect situation either. Daydreaming’s good but you should at least try to get a hang of your own issues before going on to make tall claims. My advice to you: stick to Bollywood.

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  • Ali
    Nov 6, 2012 - 12:49AM

    “The consensus in Pakistan is against fighting the militants. Pakistan’s English columnists and writers will continue to remain on the wrong side of a consensus they do not entirely grasp.”

    You lost me there my friend. If you understand the Pakistani mindset, it is one of sympathy for the Taliban/antipathy toward the West. If anything, english columnists lean toward a military operation against the taliban while the common man detests it. The Pakistani elite favors a military solution but it has failed for the past 8 years.Recommend

  • Fakhruddin
    Nov 6, 2012 - 1:37AM

    “Lower savings = Lower growth”
    Did this graduate from LSE too?

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  • Robert
    Nov 6, 2012 - 3:58AM

    @badnoc Can’t argue with some of the sentiment, but you seem to be equating poor people in India to homeless people. Not quite.Poor is also defined by Indian Government which was revised upwards as the country’s prosperity improves. So, look into the numbers, my friend.

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  • joy
    Nov 6, 2012 - 12:19PM

    @Sultan: and pray where Pakistan will be by then? still running errands for a few dollars more!!!

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  • Sultan
    Nov 6, 2012 - 5:09PM

    @joy:

    and pray where Pakistan will be by then? still running errands for a few dollars more!!!

    I don’t think so–I think things will get better as slowly, all political parties and the army will evolve a consensus that the way of the past is no way for the future. Also, if Imran is elected PM, we should expect to see a sea change in priorities and allocation of resources–expect to see more money going into neglected sectors, not wasteful show pieces or mega corruption.

    Pakistan is endowed with tremendous natural and human resources; once the trend picks up steam heading in the right direction, critical mass will be reached quite quickly.

    The way regional politics is going, by then it will be india who will running errands for the US for a few more H1-B visas and off shore jobs!

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  • Arjun
    Nov 6, 2012 - 6:58PM

    @Zeeshan:
    The FACT is those things you mentions have not happened!!! Will you have time to make those happen???

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  • Inam
    Nov 6, 2012 - 11:08PM

    @Rahul: I do agree that Pakistan have lots of lots of problems, But an Indian and some one who is educated person writing this type of article seems like he just forget about their own countries problems and just point out finger to others. Just to let you know again if this type of problem and issue what Pakistan is facing internal and external no other country can survive, Hence Pakistan is their to stand out of these problems.

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  • Inam
    Nov 6, 2012 - 11:10PM

    @Saleem: I am not saying that two wrongs can make it right and im not point out finger to others I am talking sense bc these type of people are just have fobia against Pakistan and they never let any chance go to blame Pakistan and give Bad name to Pakistan.

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  • Inam
    Nov 6, 2012 - 11:24PM

    @gp65: I am not saying Pakistan does not have any problems and should not be talked about, if you see Pakistani Media You will come to know that Pakistani media is the most open and critical to Pakistan then any other media in the world…but Hiding your own problems and pointing finger to other will only harm your own country and people.

    Pakistani constitution provide all the human rights and protection to its people and most flexible
    to other religions and sectors of country.

    So why indian’s come out on roads when the real face of india shown by A british director in ” SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRES” chanting against movie. Why indian dont wana come out of their movie world and see the real picture of their own country.
    Why they only like and likes to talk about Pakistan’s problems…..its non of your business and i would suggest its better for india to tackle their own internal problem and stop hiring people to terrorise Pakistan and stop evil propaganda against Pakistan.

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  • v
    Nov 7, 2012 - 12:22AM

    @fahad: Hilarious, would you be interested in buying a bridge?

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  • v
    Nov 7, 2012 - 12:24AM

    @Maverick: I think you left out a few adjectives. BTW your impotent rage is delicious!

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  • Azad
    Nov 9, 2012 - 8:50PM

    Lala Ji: Just shut up and mind your own business.

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  • Tanveer Ahmad
    Nov 12, 2012 - 7:44PM

    53% Indians have no toilets at their homes, they are using streets and other places for the purpose. What will Aakar say about it?

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  • Tanveer Ahmad
    Nov 12, 2012 - 7:46PM

    53% Indians have no toilets at their homes, they are using streets and other places for the purpose. What will Aakar say about it?Recommend

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